MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, May 11, 2022

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A nice 3-0 official day, 3-1 if you also took the under through the first five on the Dodgers game with me. We have been on a heater basically since the second day of the season. Let’s keep it going.

Marlins at Diamondbacks 3:40 PM ET

At the beginning of the year, Sandy Alcantara was ranked as a top-10 choice for NL Cy Young. He’s been fine, and we’ll get to that, but if you had to guess which of the two starters in this game would have a 1.22 ERA on May 10th, you’d probably have picked Alcantara, definitely not Merrill Kelly. But, here we are, Kelly has only given up runs in half of his starts. Only one of those starts has seen him allow more than one run. He’s pitching lights out right now. Kelly has allowed a hit every three at-bats against the Marlins. Alcantara, as mentioned, has been fine, and he has been successful against the Diamondbacks in the past. I’m going to play under 4 runs (DraftKings) through five innings in the game. There are juicier options available with the hook, but I’m not willing to pay that price.

Rays at Angels 7:08 PM ET

This is probably going to be the best game of the day. You have the magical Shohei Ohtani on the mound for the Angels. Aside from a start against Texas, he’s only allowed three runs in about 23 innings. I’m a little concerned for this game because the Rays are hitting .385 collectively against Ohtani, but I think some of this is a bit of an outlier. The Rays have Shane McClanahan, arguably their best pitcher, starting for them. He really hasn’t been great to start the year, though. He allows a run every few innings, but he has only allowed two hits in 17 at-bats against him. I’ll take the under 7 (DraftKings) on the game.

Astros at Twins 7:40 PM ET

Jose Urquidy has to be happy to leave April. In April, Urquidy allowed 13 earned runs in 19.2 innings. In May, he’s only had one start, but he went six-shutout innings. However, he allowed seven total baserunners. He has been good against the Twins hitters he has seen, but he’s only seen four of them. For the Twins, Chris Archer takes the mound. Archer has yet to see the fifth inning, but he is doing a good enough job of keeping the Twins in games. If Archer can make it to the fifth or sixth inning, finally, the Twins should win, but I think he will struggle to make it there and that will mean that the Astros can get to the Twins bullpen. I’ll take the Astros at -125 at DraftKings.

Written by David Troy

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