We go 2-1 last night with two plus-money winners. Our one loss was the Cubs (lost 2-1) and it was a +200 play. I’ll take that any night of the week. Onto today’s triple play of MLB Best Bets
Orioles vs. Astros
Matt Harvey is to giving up runs as Starbucks is to overpriced drinks. It’s what they do. Tonight, he faces a strong Astros lineup that will surely score off of him. The total has already been bet down to 9 runs instead of the opener of 10. This has to be because of Astros starter Luis Garcia having a great season and being even better at home. Garcia is throwing to the tune of a 1.96 ERA at home. There is no value on the moneyline. There is no value in the runline, though I think both hit. So what’s the play? It’s the Orioles team total under 3. I like this play, and love it if it if you can find under 3.5. In Garcia’s last six starts, opponents have scored 3, 1, 5, 3, 1, 2. That includes starts against the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and White Sox; all of whom are… well, better hitters than the Orioles.
Angels vs. Yankees
Shohei Othani, who (humble brag) we gave out as an MVP bet early in the season at +1200, is pitching today for the Angels and he has been good, if not great. Although on the road he hasn’t been as strong, I still like him to take on the Yankees today. Domingo German is pitching for them and has not been good recently. He has a 4.67 ERA at home and has given up three or more runs in four of his last five starts. The Yankees are the favorite in this game. I’m taking a chance on Ohtani and the Angels at +110. Maybe put a little sprinkle on the alternate run line of Angels -1.5, but I don’t think the value is there at only +172.
Tigers vs. Indians
The pitchers, and this game as a whole really, are nothing to be excited about. Wily Peralta is transitioning to a starter. He gave up five runs in his first start and went less than three innings in his second (but he didn’t give up a run). Indians hitters have seen him a few times before and are whacking him to a tune of .469. For the Indians, Logan Allen hasn’t been very good either. He holds a 9.19 ERA and even though there are only two starts, it balloons to 14.54 in night games. This is another seven-inning game, but it carries a total that should be for a nine-inning game (8.5). I’m still playing the over as I have no faith in either pitcher.