MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, July 27, 2022

We posted a solid 2-1 day again yesterday. Once again, one of the plays I thought was a no-brainer or the easiest play was our loser. That’s why unless I specify, I am only playing each play for a unit. Let’s get another good day today.

Marlins vs. Reds

We are officially on hug watch. Now, I’m going to make this somewhat brief as it is possible that one of the starters, Luis Castillo, gets traded and nullifies our bet. Castillo has probably been the one bright spot for the Reds this year, but even he seems to not like Cincinnati. At home, he has a 3.60 ERA, compared to a 2.09 road ERA. Braxton Garrett has been a solid pitcher for the Marlins, and in his last four starts, he’s been really good. This month he has gone 25 innings and allowed just five earned runs. I like the Marlins to win the game but I think the play is under 8. I’m going to play the under, but I will sprinkle the Marlins moneyline.

Rays vs. Orioles

The Orioles are playing pretty decent baseball and even won the game yesterday that was started by Tampa’s ace. Today they have another tough task in beating Drew Rasmussen. He’s been good in his starts this season. Probably by design, though, he doesn’t really go too deep into games. Either way, take out a couple of rough starts against the Rangers and Twins and he has a stellar campaign. Tyler Wells for the Orioles looks pretty competent as well. However, he hasn’t been great this month. He’s gone 20.2 innings and allowed 12 earned runs. For context, in June he went 26 innings and allowed seven earned. The Rays are a very reasonable -118 today. I’ll take them for the game and I’ll take them for the first half.

Guardians vs. Red Sox

Play the over. Cal Quantrill has been reliable for the Guardians most of the season. He has faced Boston once this year and he allowed just two earned runs over five innings before the bullpen melted down a little bit. The game ended 6-3. For Boston, Nathan Eovaldi has struggled in his return to the rotation. He was the starter when the Blue Jays went nuclear and scored 28 runs against them. In his seven innings that he’s thrown in July, he has allowed 12 earned runs. I think that continues today. Both starters should allow a few runs and the bullpens can finish it off if we need it. Play the over 8.5.

Written by David Troy

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