MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, August 4, 2021

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Not a great day on the diamond yesterday, but we still salvaged a bit with a +144 winner, the Diamondbacks. Let’s see if we can start another streak and get three great wins today.

Phillies vs. Nationals

Paolo Espino for the Nationals is being stretched out into a starter, and he is either giving up a few runs in a few innings or one or no runs in five innings. It really is an interesting fluctuation in his statistics. At home, and at night, he has been much better than on the road and during day games. His home ERA is just 2.23, and his success versus the Phillies is also a .208 average in 26 at-bats. For the Phillies, Chase Anderson started as a starter, and then went to the pen, and now is back in the rotation. He has not had much success on the road, bolstering an 8.74 ERA as a visitor. No one on the Nationals has really done much damage to him either. I like the Nationals to win this game, but I think I’ll only play the 1st half as both bullpens are not reliable. Take the Nationals at -110 through five innings.

Orioles vs. Yankees

Both pitchers in this matchup dropped their ERA by a full run in the month of July. Jameson Taillon for the Yankees has strung together a nice stretch of starts and looks to continue against the Orioles. He brings a 3.26 home ERA into the game tonight. Matt Harvey also has gone from an over bettor’s dream, to a sustainable pitcher that now has 18 consecutive scoreless innings in his last three starts. More impressive to me is that he has held Yankee hitters to just a .153 average against him. Taillion has had far less at-bats against him (just 22) but been very much in control of the Orioles hitters keeping them to a .125 average. I personally think this continues and will play the under 9 runs for the game at -102. If you can find 9.5, that would be better, or if you are into the juicier option, take under 5.5 1st half runs at -142. I think all of them happen, so play whichever you are most comfortable with. Sprinkle the Orioles to win and the game to be an under at +460.

Astros vs. Dodgers

Max Scherzer will be on the mound tonight for the Dodgers for the first time since he was acquired at the deadline in a blockbuster deal. Having faced the Astros a number of times before, he is familiar with their hitters – he has held those that remain from the World Series to a .173 average. He strikes out Astros hitters about once every five at-bats. If that average continues, he should get to about 5 strikeouts or so in the game. He should be amped up for the game and might have a little extra juice to throw tonight. However, the Astros the best team in the majors with regards to strikeouts. I personally think that with the new catcher, new atmosphere, and against a strong team that doesn’t strike out much, that Scherzer goes under 7.5 Ks in his debut at -116.  

Written by David Troy

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