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Well, I’m not going to play the Diamondbacks vs. Pirates today. Even though I’ve felt correct about the choices given, they haven’t been winners so I’m moving on. We did get a nice 2-1 night and have a +174 lean hit on the Tigers first five innings though. Let’s go for a Wednesday sweep.
Dodgers vs. Padres
It’s Walker Wednesday. Okay, so that’s not really a “thing” but Walker Buehler is pitching tonight against the Padres in a matchup that probably means more to the Friars than to the Dodgers. We know Buehler has been excellent all season and is a leading candidate for Cy Young. On the other side, Blake Snell has been significantly more effective in home starts than on the road. In fact, he’s only had what I would consider one bad start at home this season (it was about a month ago against the A’s). I think this game is a good candidate for going under 8 runs as both starters should get to the sixth or seventh inning and at that point, hopefully the bullpen doesn’t surrender too many runs. I wouldn’t be opposed to sprinkles on the Dodgers run line (+122) or under 3.5 runs for the Padres (-128).
Twins vs. Red Sox
Bailey Ober has actually been pretty good this season. When looking at his overall game log, you don’t see him go very far into a game (his season-high is six innings and it came in his last start). However, he also isn’t giving up very many runs in the game. That’s the Twins bullpen that is allowing the damage to be done. For the Red Sox, Nick Pivetta has left a lot to be desired in his home starts. He has a 5.37 ERA at home, surrendering 13 of his 18 home runs allowed on the season. Not only that, but the Twins are 9-for-20 against Pivetta. Josh Donaldson has four hits in 12 at-bats and three of those have left the yard. I’m playing the Twins at +118 through five innings in this game. Donaldson is also +340 to hit a home run today. I’ll take a shot on that as well.
Giants vs. Mets
Johnny Cueto was once the ace of the Giants rotation. At this point, he might not even get a postseason start. I may be going a bit extreme there, but there is no denying, he is one of the few Giant pitchers that have not exceeded expectations this season. He brings a 4.93 road ERA and 4.78 night ERA into the game tonight, on the road, against the Mets. Taijuan Walker throws for the Mets and while he has been effective at home (3.05 ERA) he also has been hit harder during night starts (4.08 ERA). His past experience against Giant hitters has been limited, but he has been hit by them in those matchups. I think this one is a safe play on the over 8.5 at -118.