MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, August 11, 2021
Decent day on the diamond yesterday with a couple of wins and one loss on the Cubs after a rain delay took out the starting pitchers. Onto Wednesday:
Marlins vs. Padres
Sandy Alcantara has very drastic splits. At home, he has a 2.58 ERA, but on the road, that shoots up to a 4.86 ERA. Alcantara has never faced the Padres and has only faced a couple of their hitters in his career. These teams are also going in very opposite directions – the Marlins have lost their last five games and Padres are winners of their last four. Ryan Weathers has had back-to-back brutal starts, first against the Rockies, he gave up eight earned runs in four innings, and then he gave up six earned runs in three innings against the Diamondbacks. He too has very extreme splits. At home, Weathers has a 5.92 ERA in comparison to just a 2.27 road ERA. Play the over 8.5 at -112.
Tigers vs. Orioles
Guess which team is third-best in the majors and second-best in the American League against left-handed pitchers? If I didn’t see the stat for myself, I wouldn’t have guessed the Orioles, but here we are. Today, they face a lefty who has a 5.92 road ERA and has given up a .310 batting average to them (small sample size of only 23 at-bats). Tarik Skubal had a nice outing against the Red Sox in his last start, but he was hit hard by the Orioles in his start against them earlier this season. Matt Harvey had is scoreless inning streak stopped by the Yankees last week, but it was still a respectable outing. I’m playing the Orioles to win the game and the first half at +100 and +102.
Blue Jays vs. Angels
Dylan Bundy has been beaten up a lot for his season – and rightfully so in most cases, but he is actually looking better in his last few appearances (not all of them have been starts). The Blue Jays are as tough of a lineup as any out there and should make this a difficult day for the Angels. Alek Manoah has been eye-opening for the Blue Jays, throwing to an ERA of 2.58. He has been good, but less successful on the road. I don’t think this game will be a crazy high score, so I’m going to play the under 9.5 on the game at -118.