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MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, September 28, 2021

All odds in this article come from our partner, FanDuel Sportsbook.

A 1-1 wash, and a loss on the parlay (which was just for fun anyway). Today we have a fuller slate of baseball and get back to the three-play format. This is the last week before the playoffs, so some of these games matter a lot. And, a lot of these games matter very little.

Red Sox vs. Orioles

Chris Sale has returned and been just as dominant as he was before he had surgery, which is great news for the Red Sox going into next season. I’m looking at this game almost exclusively about his performance. He’s faced the Orioles twice this season and he’s allowed three runs over 10 innings. I don’t expect the Red Sox to let him go super deep into the game today, but I do think he replicates the same type of performance – five or six innings and two or fewer runs allowed. The Red Sox bullpen doesn’t give me much faith, but I think the one or two runs they have to work with can keep the Orioles under their low team total of 3 runs at -104.

Cubs vs. Pirates

The bottom dwellers of the National League Central face off tonight – one had a promising year and was done by the middle of it, the other never really stood a chance. Alec Mills starts for the Cubs and he has been hit or miss in his starts of late. In his last outing against the Pirates, he allowed five earned runs in 5.2 innings. Lately, the longball has been hurting him. He’s allowed six home runs in his last four outings. The Pirates starter isn’t much more promising. Mitch Keller has allowed 15 earned runs in his last 27 innings. Though, Keller’s last strong outing was against this Cubs lineup when he held them to no earned runs over six innings. I do like Keller’s chances against the Cubs tonight, but I think with the wind blowing out, both teams will struggle to stop the other. Play the over 8.5 at -118 .

Athletics vs. Mariners

If the Athletics lose tonight, their season is basically over. If they win, they still have a very small chance to survive and make the playoffs. With New York playing Toronto, there is a strong possibility that the Mariners could move up to one of the two Wild Card spots. This is a game that I think the Mariners win. Tyler Anderson starts for the Mariners, and it is a good thing that he is throwing at home – he has a 3.16 ERA as a home starter. In his only appearance against the A’s, he allowed just one earned run over seven innings. For the A’s, it doesn’t look good with Chris Bassitt on the mound. Bassitt is still working his way back from the line drive to the head he took and threw three scoreless against the Mariners in his last outing. That was the best outing he had against them though. He’s allowed eight earned over 12 innings. I think the Mariners are the team tonight, play them to win at -106.

Written by David Troy

David is a marketing professional and former adjunct professor from Chicago, IL, husband, and father. He is an avid sports lover that has turned his focus to sports betting after originally developing a love for risk, statistics, and gambling from the Texas Hold'em Poker boom. He loves interacting with people and talking about pop culture, and obviously sports. When he isn't watching sports, he's probably coaching his kids, drinking tequila, or watching movies and tv. David may not always be right, but he will give you reasons why he is doing what he does.

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