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MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, September 14, 2021

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August was a really nice month for us, but September has been a bit of a struggle. Let’s see if we can start a nice streak and rebound today.

Rockies vs. Braves

Tonight’s matchup for the Rockies starts with Jon Gray. Gray has been a decent home starter, but on the road he struggles to keep the Rockies in games. During away games he has a 4.68 ERA and it increased to over five during night games. Touki Toussaint is pitching for the Braves. Toussaint has seen some success – specifically as a road starter and during the day. Today, he is pitching in neither of those situations. Toussaint has an ERA above five runs at home as a Braves starter and during night games. Wind should not be much of a factor, but I think both pitchers will be accommodating to allowing runs tonight and I’m going to play the over 9 runs in tonight’s game at -106.

Cardinals vs. Mets

Tonight’s game really should be a feature on Marcus Stroman. This is his audition to get a major contract in the offseason as he continues to keep the Mets in the playoff hunt and battle against other potential playoff teams. Stroman has a 2.87 ERA overall on the season and has only walked 40 batters in 163 innings. He has seen sustained success in his at-bats against the Cardinals, holding them to a .167 batting average. Jake Woodford pitches for the Cardinals, and though he has started only four times this season, he’s been pretty consistent overall with a 4.28 ERA. He hasn’t faced the Mets this season, but in 16 at-bats, they only have three his against him. I expect Stroman to get the best of the Cardinals hitters. Play the Mets run line at -1.5 at +110.

Marlins vs. Nationals

Jesus Luzardo had been a disaster since coming over from the Athletics via trade, but recently he may have found his grove. He’s allowed only five earned runs in his last 17.1 innings over three starts. Against Washington, he’s had only one start so far, and it wasn’t great – he allowed five runs over 4.2 innings. That was his last start before this recent string of success. Can it continue tonight? I personally think so. He could have figured out some of the issues that were plaguing him. Nationals starter Erick Fedde is on the opposite track of Luzardo, he was doing well, but lately has been hit rather hard. Over his last three starts, he’s allowed 13 runs over his last 14.1 innings. I think his struggles may continue tonight, even though he’s had success against the Marlins this season. Play the Marlins to win at +124.

Written by David Troy

David is a marketing professional and former adjunct professor from Chicago, IL, husband, and father. He is an avid sports lover that has turned his focus to sports betting after originally developing a love for risk, statistics, and gambling from the Texas Hold'em Poker boom. He loves interacting with people and talking about pop culture, and obviously sports. When he isn't watching sports, he's probably coaching his kids, drinking tequila, or watching movies and tv. David may not always be right, but he will give you reasons why he is doing what he does.

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