MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, October 12, 2021

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Baseball is a crazy game. The Rays were down five but it felt like they would make a comeback. They did. Then, they had a chance to take the lead and didn’t. At that point, it felt like the Red Sox would win. They did. Now we have three series remaining and all of them are at Game 4. Let’s see what we can bet today.

Astros vs. White Sox

Pitching changes everything. Yesterday, I loved the White Sox with Carlos Rodon. Especially against the weakest of Astros starters. Today, they have to face Lance McCullers Jr. In Game 1, McCullers threw 6.2 scoreless innings, allowing just four hits. This means that over 19.2 innings against the Sox this season, he’s allowed just three earned runs. He also is a 2.71 ERA road pitcher. His last start against the Sox in July was at Guaranteed Rate Field, same place as today. He went seven innings with two hits and one run allowed. We discussed Rodon yesterday, and, obviously, none of that changed. As a reminder: He’s done great overall for the White Sox, the only split that I have a bit of concern about is the day-time 3.18 ERA – which isn’t bad, but it is higher than any other split he has. He faced the Astros twice this season, only allowing four hits and one earned run over 14 innings. I’m going to play the under 8.5 today at -118. I also lean Astros so the combo there would be +260. We have a +380 ticket so let’s sweep all of these with an Astros and under win today.

Brewers vs. Braves

The Braves went from having no chance to win the series to being -168 favorites to win today. We need the Braves to win the series to cash our +124 series price ticket we played, and we get two chances. I do think the Braves get it done today though. Charlie Morton opened the series with a 2-1 loss. He surrendered both runs and obviously pitched well. I think we should be able to expect a similar, six-inning, under-three-runs-allowed outing from Morton today. For the Brewers, they appear to be conceding? I mean, why else wouldn’t you throw Corbin Burnes? You have two great options to pitch Game 5, don’t save him for a game that won’t be played. Burnes also is better on the road. Instead, they are throwing Eric Lauer. Lauer is fine. He’s got a 3.19 ERA and has good numbers across his splits. But, he faced Atlanta once this season and allowed three earned runs over three innings. That included two home runs to Marcell Ozuna and Ozzie Albies. I’m going to play the under 8 in this one as well at -110.

Giants vs. Dodgers

This isn’t an official pick, because the Dodgers have yet to name a starter. If I have a final pick, I’ll edit and update the article. I assume that Walker Buehler is going to pitch for them, but no word yet. He would be the best choice and I think pushes this game to game 5. It won’t be an easy task though, as the Dodgers have to face Anthony DeSclafani who has a 2.55 night-game ERA. One word of warning with him though, he’s allowed 23 earned runs in 27 innings to the Dodgers this season. Only eight of those runs came at Dodger Stadium over 15.2 innings, though. If in fact it is Buehler pitching, I’m playing the Giants under 3.5 runs at -122.

Written by David Troy

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