We’ve crushed it the last two days going 3-0 yesterday including a +162 winner, and then 6-1 overall with a multi-unit cash. Let’s keep it going!
Braves vs. Phillies
Charlie Morton takes on Zack Wheeler. Wheeler has been very strong at home, since his one start in April against the Brewers, Wheeler has allowed exactly two earned runs over 32.2 home innings. He has faced the Braves once this year, he allowed two earned runs over 6.2 innings. Morton has had back-to-back strong outings, but on the road he has tended to struggle. He’s allowed four runs or more in five of his seven road starts. I like the Phillies here at -118. I also think they score more than four runs, but I won’t pay the -130 price on it.
Pirates vs. Nationals
Patrick Corbin is terrible. There’s been exactly one game this season where he has not allowed a run. At home, he is posting a 5.87 ERA, which is actually significantly better than his road ERA. One bright spot of potential though – Pirates hitters are batting roughly .250 against him, but he has allowed only one RBI to them. Jose Quintana has found his comfort at home, but struggled on the road. He has allowed an earned run basically every other inning and surrendered a 25 hits in 24.1 innings. He’s already allowed three earned runs in four innings this year to the Nationals, and has a 5.63 ERA in June. I’m taking the over 8.5 runs in this one.
Athletics vs. Yankees
Call it a value play. I don’t think the A’s are good, I’ve said that on here a few times, and the Yankees look like a World Series team. In fact, the A’s are 25 games under .500 and the Yankees are almost 25 games over .500. But, today I think the Yankees lose. Frankie Montas is one of the better A’s players and pitchers. He has definitely struggled on the road, posting 5.21 ERA. The Yankees have been good against him as well, batting .288 and getting 13 RBIs in 52 at-bats. The Yankees have JP Sears going for them in his second start of his career. He’s only thrown 7 total innings and hasn’t allowed a run. But he’s allowed five hits and three walks. This is a bet on experience and value more than anything. Take Montas and the Athletics, but do it cautiously at +160.