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Yesterday on the diamond, we went 2-1 with an underdog winner in the Rockies. The other win, the A’s, cashed in the first three innings of the game. Let’s see if we can find some more low or no sweat wins tonight.
Cubs vs. Mets
I’m starting with a marquee matchup between two of the most famous teams in the country, the Cubs and the Mets. Alec Mills has been in the bullpen this year and has not been particularly efficient. He comes in with a 6.08 ERA and is familiar with starting. He even threw a no-hitter last year. This play is less about him and more about the fact that I expect the Cubs to treat this as a bullpen game. The Cubs have the second-best bullpen ERA in baseball. I’m taking them on the moneyline, which has been dropping due to sharp action. Play the Cubs at +128.
Tigers vs Royals
The Tigers are not very good. Against lefties, they are worse, hitting only .214 against them this season. Tonight, they face a lefty, Mike Minor, who is not having a very good campaign. A lot of the damage has been done via the home run ball against him, but tonight the wind is blowing in. Casey Mize for the Tigers has been significantly better on the road, with a 2.80 ERA. He has also held the Royals to a .140 batting average in 50 at-bats. I think runs will be at a premium and am going to play under 8.5 at -108.
Phillies vs Dodgers
Julio Urias probably belongs in the bullpen for the Dodgers. But, honestly, someone has to be the weak link in their rotation. And, as fifth starters go, Urias is actually pretty good. Against the Phillies, in a limited sample size, he has been very successful. Phillies hitters are batting just .031 against him (2-22). On the other side, Zach Eflin is a good but not dominant pitcher. The Dodgers shouldn’t struggle to get hits, as they have a .307 batting average against him (also limited sample size, just 25 at-bats). I don’t like the moneyline at -180, but at plus money on the run line, I’m willing to take a chance on the Dodgers. Take Dodgers -1.5 at +114.