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The Pirates, of all teams, the Pirates, keep us from a sweep yesterday, coming from behind on the Diamondbacks and stealing the game. Oh well, we have a full slate today. Let’s get right to it!
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates
Back we go to the game that hit us last night. Maybe I’m a glutton for punishment, or maybe I just love games that get less attention, either way, I have run my analysis and this is one I have a play on. In six of his last seven starts, Madison Bumgarner has pitched his way to a quality start. Tonight should be no different against a Pirates team that is hitting .234 against lefties. Bumgarner has an effective 3.50 ERA at night, and despite road troubles, should be able to accomplish a victory. The Pirates throw JT Brubaker, whose lowest split ERA comes at home – 4.14. He has a 5.69 ERA during night starts. In his last three starts, he’s given up seven, five, and eight earned runs, so he hasn’t been in great form lately. Play the D-backs to win at -124. I also like them to win on the run line at +134.
Angels vs. Orioles
There really isn’t a good way to say this… Neither pitcher in this game gives much hope for either team to win the game. Dylan Bundy has been bad this season, but the Angels seem to have found a better way to do pitch him – limit the number of innings he goes. He is surprisingly effective the first time through a lineup though, holding hitters to just a .204 average. The problem is of the 34 hits he’s given up, 13 have left the yard. For the Orioles, Spenser Watkins hasn’t been much better. In eight starts, he’s given up 25 earned runs for a 5.63 ERA. Watkins has been terrible the first time through the lineup – he’s being hit at a .371 average. I’m playing the Angels to be winning after three innings at +102. I will sprinkle a lead after the first inning too at +195.
Tigers vs. Cardinals
Let me preface this. I am playing this mostly based on trends and profitability, I think there is a lot of value in this play, but similar to other picks I share here, they aren’t ones I think are “locks”… I mean anyone can give out the Brewers tonight to win at -220 and call it handicapping. Casey Mize is a top pitcher in terms of profitability through the first five innings, one of the main reasons is he is an underdog so often, but the other side of that is because he has been successful through those five innings. He hasn’t pitched great in his last three or four outings, but the Cardinals have also never seen him. Overall, his splits are consistent and I feel like he can keep the Tigers in the game. The problem is he faces Jack Flaherty who I think is a superb pitcher. At home, he is even better with a 1.74 ERA over five starts. I’m LEANING Tigers first five innings (+172). But I will play the under on 4.5 total runs through the first five innings at -128.