MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, August 17, 2021

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Yesterday was a great example of betting in three different ways. I was right about the Twins/Indians, wrong about the White Sox/A’s, and the Cubs/Reds I had the right read – Reds to easily cover the spread — but wrong play because I thought the game would be close and an under. Always a learning experience. Let’s move onto today.

Angels vs. Tigers

Ah, my favorite guy to look for every five days – Casey Mize. Mize has had a surprisingly effective season so far and has been one of the most profitable pitchers in the first five innings in the majors. Against the Angels, he has only seen 13 batters, but he’s given up seven hits. Sadly, Mize is also not pitching very well or deep into games lately – he’s only made it to the fifth inning in two of his last seven starts. Dylan Bundy has been bad all season. He, too, isn’t pitching very deep into games, but his success against the Tigers is better – holding them to a .197 average over 37 at-bats. I think both pitchers give up some runs and we get over 4.5 runs for the first five innings at -128.

Brewers vs. Cardinals

Adam Wainwright turned back the clock last game and threw a “Maddux” – a complete game shutout with under 100 pitches. The real story here is that he’s gone five consecutive starts of at least seven innings pitched and hasn’t given up more than three runs. Corbin Burns has been a Cy Young candidate this season and has a 2.23 ERA to show for it. He has dominated the Cardinals so far this season, giving up only one run in 11 innings. His ERA is a bit higher at night, just over three at 3.09. This game has a 7.5 total and I don’t see it getting there. I’m playing the under 7.5 at -122, but I’m seeing some shops at 7. If you prefer not to lay the juice, I like the Cardinals to take this game. Cardinals and under 7.5 pays +300, something to consider.

Mets vs. Giants

Marcus Stroman is in line for a nice payday at the end of the year. Tonight, he takes on the team with the best record in baseball, the San Francisco Giants. Stroman has been very good in night starts, he has a 2.31 ERA in 11 starts. He has been hit by the Giants in his career, they are batting .298 against him with only a third of their hits being for extra bases. I’d like to see him go more than five innings in a start, but even after being removed in the fifth for six of his last seven starts, I still like the Mets’ chances here. Logan Webb for the Giants has had four consecutive quality starts. At home, he has been downright dominant, posting a 1.58 ERA. Juice is high on this one, but I’ll play it – under 4.5 runs for the first five innings.

Written by David Troy

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