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Yesterday was a strange day for baseball. The short slate got even shorter when the Cubs/Brewers game got canceled. Back to it we go with a full pack of MLB games.
Tigers vs. Orioles
I’ve mentioned this before, but it bears repeating: Casey Mize is a top 10 first five-inning profitability pitcher. Today, he is a -142 favorite. Mize has a .188 batting average against him from the Orioles hitters. In his last outing against the birds, he gave up one unearned run in seven innings. For the Orioles, Keegan Akin pitches in his eighth start of the season. Akin has thrown to three Tiger hitters, and two of them got hits. He doesn’t miss many bats and has a 6.41 ERA at home. I like the Tigers to win this game and win the first five innings. I don’t think a draw happens, so I’m playing the Tigers three-way result through five innings at -105.
Brewers vs. Cubs (Game 2)
The Cubs, as a team, are hard to predict right now because some of their stats are influenced by those that are no longer on the squad. The stats indicate that they are better against lefties though, but even some of the new names in the lineup have been more successful against southpaws. Tonight they face Aaron Ashby, who has only pitched one other time in the Majors – against the non-Minor League version of the Cubs on June 30th – when he gave up seven runs in 0.2 innings. This actually might have been the game that led Cubs brass to decide they needed to have their garage sale on the team. Either way, he should have an easier time through the lineup this game, but I still like the Cubs’ chances to win. Alec Mills isn’t an outstanding pitcher, but he has had better results against the Brewers, including last year’s no-hitter. I’ll take the Cubs today +130.
Diamondbacks vs. Giants
I’m still in shock that the Giants are the best team (record-wise) in baseball. It starts with their pitching staff, which has been outstanding. Alex Wood goes tonight. He has been fine as a pitcher but has not stood out like many of the others. The Diamondbacks are also pretty successful against him batting .308 over 108 at-bats. Zac Gallen hasn’t been much more successful for the D-backs against the Giants. The Giants are hitting .290 against him. He has been touched up a bit more on the road. He is throwing to the tune of a 5.10 ERA. I’m seeing a total of 8 runs right now, and I like the over to happen. Play it at -106.