MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, September 8, 2021

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Almost a sweep, but still a wonderful day overall. If you played everything, you were up a solid 5.86 units, even if you didn’t you were still 2-1 and up at least 2.52 units. Let’s look to keep it rolling!

Royals vs. Orioles

Well, Matt Harvey is pitching today so the public is thinking he will give up 50 runs and the game is an auto over bet. But, this is mostly because the public hears things a year or two ago and it triggers in their head that it must be true so they bet on it. Luckily, if you read these, you know Harvey has actually been fine for a few months now. One of his best starts of the season came against the Royals as well. Mike Minor is pitching for the Royals tonight and he has allowed three runs or less in his past four starts. He has not faced the Orioles this season, but hitters have only had one extra-base hit against him in 25 at-bats. I like both pitchers to have the edge in this game and the under 9.5 to stand at -118.

Phillies vs. Brewers

Kyle Gibson was rocked in his last outing by the Marlins, allowing eight earned runs over 5.1 innings. Before that start, though, Gibson gave up 13 earned runs in 37 innings, which is a strong run. The Brew Crew is batting about .300 against Gibson in their career at-bats. Freddy Peralta has a nice 2.70 ERA on the season, but in his last four games, he’s allowed 11 earned runs over 15.1 innings. Phillies hitters are batting 9-for-29 against Peralta. The first two games of the series have been blowouts, one for each team. I think both teams should be able to score a few runs off of starters and bullpens. But, I have a lot less confidence in the Philadelphia bullpen. I’m going to play over 8 at -114.

Reds vs. Cubs

The Reds starter Vladimir Gutierrez looks to finalize his fairly effective season with a start against the Cubs. He has a solid track record as a visiting starter, pitching to a 3.58 ERA. He’s faced the Cubs three times already this season and gave up five earned runs in 17.1 innings, but he’s also lived dangerously, giving up 16 hits in those innings. Allowing that much traffic tends to really impact the game negatively for you overall. Alec Mills starts for the Cubs and his last two outings have been stellar. In fact, aside from one appearance against the Royals, he has been strong over the last 11 outings. Not all of them have been deep, or run free, but from a pitching and ERA standpoint, they have been good. Mills has started two games against the Reds, and he’s given up 8 runs over 12.2 innings. I think today though the upstart Cubs get the better of Gutierrez and win this game at +102.

Written by David Troy

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