MLB Best Bets for Thursday, September 23, 2021
We end with a 1-2 day after some bullpen blowing losses – the Yankees get too many runs off of the Rangers (I did say that if the over hit, it would be because of the Yankees), and then the Mets score two off of the Red Sox, including a meaningless one in the ninth. Let’s do better today.
Dodgers vs. Rockies
The Rockies are not a good team, but at home they are almost 20 games above .500. That usually means that you wouldn’t make the bet I’m recommending today. But, the Rockies haven’t had to face a ridiculously dominant Max Scherzer at home this season. Scherzer is currently on a 32.2 inning streak where he hasn’t allowed a run. The Rockies don’t exactly strike fear into me. I think Scherzer goes seven innings, allows two or less runs and the Dodgers bullpen holds them to a run or less. Play the Rockies under 3.5 runs at +100.
Astros vs. Angels
Lance McCullers Jr. has established himself as the ace or second in the Astros rotation with his consistent performance over the year. McCullers has faced the Angels a number of times and held them to just a .219 batting average with only four total extra base hits allowed. This season, he’s faced the Angels four times and allowed only six earned runs over 25.2 innings. So, why am I taking the Angels today? Mostly because of starter Alex Cobb. At home, Cobb has a 2.30 ERA over seven starts. Although he was lit up by the Astros in his one start against them this season, I think he makes a better impact this time. He’s only had one home start all season where he allowed more than three earned runs, and it isn’t as though McCullers is unhittable. I’ll take the value offered on the Angels at +140 – I wouldn’t play this much lower though.
Pirates vs. Phillies
Tonight might actually be a nice pitcher's duel between the Pirates and Phillies. For the Pirates, we have a 28-year old right-hander named Connor Overton throwing. He’s been used mostly in relief this season but has thrown 11.2 innings of completely scoreless baseball. On the other side, we have Aaron Nola, the oft-hyped, often disappointing starter. He’s been pretty good at home this year, posting a 3.45 ERA, and has held opponents to under three runs in home starts in three of his last four outings. Play the Pirates and Phillies under 8 runs at -104.