MLB Best Bets for Thursday, October 14, 2021

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I don’t really think it is a surprise to anyone that the Giants and Dodgers are playing five games. It certainly doesn’t come as a shock that the two best teams need to go the full length of the series in order to determine a winner. Personally, I’m shocked that the Giants are still in it, but fine. Here we are and the winner of this game should get to the World Series.

Dodgers vs. Giants

I’m not sure home-field advantage means much for these two. They both are in California and are both familiar with each other’s stadiums after playing in them so much. Besides, the games have been split with each road team taking one from the home team. So far, the series has gone Giants victory, Dodgers victory, Giants, Dodgers. If that famous zig-zag theory is true, the Giants will win tonight. It will be no easy feat against 20-game winner Julio Urias. In Game 2, Urias went five innings and allowed just one earned run. That isn’t exactly shocking as he threw 29.1 innings against them in the regular season and allowed 11 earned runs over five starts. At AT&T park, he has now thrown 22.1 innings and allowed just five earned runs (that includes the playoffs). The one cause for concern I have is that the Giants are hitting better against lefties in the playoffs than righties. This is a bit of a small sample size, and during the regular season, they were split pretty evenly, but still a bit concerning.

The Dodgers combat Urias with Logan Webb, a 24-year old right-hander. Aside from Game 5 pressure, which cannot be understated, this is the best possible spot for the Giants to have Webb in. At home, Webb has thrown to a 1.98 ERA, and in night starts, he’s pitched to a 2.34 ERA. In one of the more unique stats, the Giants haven’t lost a single game that Webb has started at home. That’s 14 games, including a start against the Dodgers in the playoffs. He’s allowed just eight hits and one earned run over 13.2 innings facing the Dodgers at home. As much as this kills my futures tickets, I don’t see the Dodgers winning tonight against a pitcher with this kind of excellence this year. Play the Giants at -110.

I’m also going to put a small play on Logan Webb to have over 5.5 strikeouts at +128. Maybe he was just amped up for Game 1, but he struck out 10 Dodgers in the game. In the other starts against Los Angeles, he had seven, five, and five strikeout performances. A 50/50 chance gives me some optimism that this can hit, especially at plus money. I do feel like Giants manager, Gabe Kapler, allows Webb a longer leash than his other starters, so he should have the opportunity to pitch 6 innings tonight and he averages over a strikeout per inning.

Written by David Troy

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