MLB Best Bets for Thursday
June and July are often my favorite time of year to watch baseball, and also to bet on it. The weather is nicer, and the rainouts are less frequent. The bats usually start to heat up. But, most of all, there is enough data now to see how players are really performing on the year. This is also before the All-Star break, which usually causes some issues for bettors. But for today, let’s focus on some bets that we feel are good opportunities to make some money.
Cubs vs. Giants
The Cubs are hot right now, winning nine of their last ten games and 11 of their last 13. The Giants are also doing better lately, having won four of their last five games. Tonight features two pitchers who are definitely hittable though – Anthony DeSclafani for the Giants and Zach Davies for the Cubs. Davies actually had a 1.72 ERA in May after a 9.47 ERA in April. He also carries a 6.41 ERA when pitching on the road and 7.91 at night. DeSclafani, the home pitcher, has a home ERA of 5.09. I think the Cubs bullpen is good enough to keep the runs down, and Davies only pitches about 5 innings. Couple that with some hot bats, and I’m taking over 4.5 runs through the first five innings of the game.
Reds vs. Cardinals
Adam Wainwright is not the pitcher that he once was, but he still has good stuff and is a capable pitcher. The opposing pitcher, Vladimir Gutierrez, has one start under his belt and it was pretty good – one run in five innings against the Cubs. There isn’t much to dissect, you can bet this one of two ways, rookie pitchers usually either get lit up, or are almost unhittable against teams they’ve never seen before. There is some risk in this pick knowing that, but I like going with the experienced Wainwright and his 2.41 home ERA. The line has already moved in the Cardinals' favor. Take the Cards to win on the Moneyline at -168.
Cardinals/White Sox Parlay
If you’re not in favor of taking the Cardinals straight up because of the cost (I get it), try this parlay to see if it gets you where you’re looking. The White Sox are starting Lance Lynn against one of the worst teams in the league, Detroit. Lynn is 6-1 with a 1.37 ERA, and the Tigers are hitting .208 against him cumulatively. Combine the White Sox with the Cardinals to get +135 on the two teams to win outright.