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Yesterday was very frustrating. Normally, I am accepting of losing – it is part of betting – but these two were really frustrating. We go 1-2 and both losses came on games that looked squarely in hand. A 5-run ninth lost our Astros/Athletics bet, and San Francisco’s normally strong bullpen allowed four earned runs in the sixth inning. Bounce back today.
Padres at Brewers
Sean Manaea has put the Padres in a position to win the game in most of his starts this season. He’s posted a quality start in seven of his nine starts on the year. Even with a 4.02 ERA on the year, he has pitched better than that shows. Brewers hitters have one hit in 12 at-bats against him, so it might take a little time for them to become familiar with him in this game. For the Brewers, Adrian Houser has been fine as a starter. He had a very rough outing his last start against the Cardinals, but aside from that, he’s kept the Brewers in every game. Padres hitters have gone 9-for-57 against Houser. I think both starters should be able to control the game. I’m going to play the 1st half under 4.5 runs at -114.
Mariners at Orioles
Looking at the total on this game, we see that bookmakers have hung a 9 as the total. Chris Flexen is going for the Mariners, and eight of his nine starts have gone for under 9 runs. Jordan Lyles is going for the Orioles, and six of his 10 starts have gone under 9 runs. Frankly, I’m a bit surprised this opened at nine runs. If Flexen can get past the first trip through the lineup, I think he can hold the Orioles’ offense to a few runs at most. Lyles has done fairly well against the Mariners and has allowed just four extra-base hits in his 14 hits allowed. I’m going to play under 9 at -110 in this one.
Those are my only two officials for the day. I do like the Orioles (-108) and the Padres (-104) to win the game and would be okay to play them on the moneyline or in a just-for-fun parlay (+277).