MLB Best Bets for Thursday, July 29, 2021

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Yesterday we got back on track with a beautiful sweep including a nice +132 win on the Dodgers leading after three innings. Let’s look to keep it rolling.

With the trade deadline looming, there are some big question marks about who is staying and how some of these bets will change, so be cautious. The first play is an example of what I’m referring to.

Reds vs. Cubs

The Reds are in contention for the division and the Cubs are headed towards a restructuring. In fact, both Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are out of the lineup today. The big question on both is it a trade or rest, or both? Both have been floating in and out of rumors and now might be headed out of town. With Rizzo as the heart of the Cubs, this could put a big impact on the Cubs players. Luis Castillo is pitching for the Reds and he has been extremely hittable this season. However, since June, he has been much improved, and in July, even better. Alec Mills goes for the Cubs and has been reliable in his return to the rotation. Against the Reds, he has been very successful against their best hitters. I just don’t think the Cubs hearts will be in this one and they fall to the Reds. Play Reds -136 on the moneyline.

Nationals vs. Phillies (Game 2)

Another matchup that has trade buzz and speculation overhead. However, the big name, Max Scherzer, pitches in Game 1 of the doubleheader. In this, Patrick Corbin starts for the Nats, and he has struggled on the road to the tune of a 6.13 road ERA. He has had success against Phillies hitters, keeping them at just a .217 batting average against him. Vince Velazquez has been awful in three of his last four starts. He’s kept Nationals hitters guessing most of the time in his appearances. They have a .137 average against Velazquez. Seeing as this is just a seven-inning game, I’d lean towards the Nationals winning, but I’m going to play the over 7 runs instead as I think both pitchers give up some runs in this one.

Orioles vs. Tigers

There are probably some trade rumors about players on both of these teams, but nothing that concerns me like the other two picks. My play for this is mainly on Casey Mize. Mize is the most profitable pitcher in baseball through the first five innings. He has posted an 11-5-4 record through the first five innings of the game, and most of that is because the Tigers are not favored in a game. Today, they are. The Tigers are hitting .251 against lefties and .242 at home (though, it isn’t much different than the .241 on the road). Tonight they face Alexander Wells, who they can get to as he is giving up a .318 average and four runs to 22 at-bats the first time facing a lineup. He does improve as the game goes on. I’d expect the Tigers to take advantage and I’m playing the Tigers -0.5 at -122 for the first five innings as my play. As a bonus, I’m playing the Tigers to lead after 3 innings +108.  

Written by David Troy

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