MLB Best Bets for Thursday, July 28, 2022

A stellar 3-0-1 day for us and you might even have gone 4-0 on the day if you got to the plays later because I saw the Reds/Marlins game having an 8.5 after I saw it at 8 at the time of writing. Actually, the numbers on the Rays were better too. Let’s keep rolling. Since Monday, we are 7-2-1.

Dodgers vs. Rockies

There is no question which is the better team in this matchup. The Dodgers are probably the class of the NL and the Rockies are perpetually struggling. For some reason, they basically traded Nolan Arenado for Kris Bryant, a trade that was rumored forever while Bryant was in Chicago. It never happened, but the end result is similar except Arenado went to the Cubs rival. Enough about that – sorry – Tyler Anderson has been good for the Dodgers, no complaints about his starts, he’s posted a great July where he’s only allowed four earned runs in 25.1 innings. Jose Urena has been good too since his trade from Milwaukee. He’s posted three quality starts in his four starts with the Rockies. He was hit pretty hard by the Brewers last time out, though. Either way, 12 runs is a little too high with these pitchers for me. I’ll take the under.

Guardians vs. Red Sox

This is a game that I lean towards the under, but I feel a stronger play is a side. Triston McKenzie has been a bright spot for the Guardians rotation this year. He’s throwing to a 3.23 ERA on the road and as long as he can keep the ball in the ballpark, he’s usually pretty reliable. He’s been unbelievable this month, allowing just one earned run in 26.2 innings. Kutter Crawford, great name for a pitcher, has been fine for the Red Sox. He isn’t really “wowing” anyone, but he is good enough. His home ERA is a little rough, but he seems to be improving there. This month has been better, going 16.1 innings and allowing just four earned runs. Still, I think that the Guardians are the better team in this one and will play the moneyline. I think I’ll likely play the under too.

Royals vs. Yankees

I wonder if Andrew Benintendi flew with the Royals to New York or if he took a separate plane. Either way, he has now switched teams and his teammates are now his opponents as he moves to the pinstripes. The Yankees, though might need to figure out what has gone on with Jameson Taillon this month. After a nice June, he’s allowed 14 earned runs in 19 July innings. He’s not someone that I feel comfortable backing – especially at a hefty -250 price tag. I wouldn’t normally back Brady Singer, either, but he’s been good this month. He’s had three consecutive quality starts, and the Royals have won all four of his starts this month. I think the value is on the Royals to win here. I think I’ll do a half unit on the 1st half moneyline (+172) and a half unit on the full moneyline (+205).

Written by David Troy

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