MLB Best Bets for Thursday, July 21, 2022

We’ve reached the second “half” of the season. Most teams are about 10 games past that mark and we now try to close out a July month on a good note, before the dog days of August. For whatever reason, post-All-Star Break betting presents new challenges. But, this is a good opportunity to share that we had a phenomenal first half. We are 32-20 this month and 155-103 this year. Betting is hard, so while I expect the success to continue, I also know there will be stretches of struggle. With a short slate and so many early games, we are only going to have two plays today.

Tigers vs. A’s (Game 1)

Tarik Skubal was someone I really enjoyed in the first half because we had some nice profitability on him. Not only did we get a little bit of money off him as a 1st five moneyline leader, but then when he went downhill we got in on his totals. In six of his last seven games, he has allowed three or more earned runs. Zach Logue has three starts this season that I think he can be proud of – and his best one was against these Tigers. He went seven innings of scoreless baseball and allowed just five hits. I think this is going to be a different game though. He’s struggled in his two day-time starts and Skubal has been inconsistent. I’m going to play the over 7.5.

Giants vs. Dodgers

We start with Carlos Rodon again. I’ve been supporting this guy almost the entire season. After a terrible May, he returned to form in June before a rough start in July. Then he rebounded once again. He’s faced the Dodgers twice this season, spanning 12 innings and only allowing two earned runs. He is slightly worse on the road than at home, but he should still be okay today. The Giants face Mitch White. He is coming off a very bad start against the Cardinals – he allowed six earned runs in five innings. In his last three home starts, though, he has allowed just five earned runs over 15.1 innings. I’m going to take the Giants in this game at +120.

Written by David Troy

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