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Great night last night. Overall, it was a 1-1-1 night, but if you played everything that I recommended it turned out to be a 5.62 unit day of profitability. Let’s keep it rolling.
Cardinals vs. Pirates
Yes, the Pirates have burned me a couple of times this week, but this is a new series! The Cardinals come to town and are bringing with them Miles Mikolas, who is starting only his third game of the season. He is a few years removed from his 2.83 ERA season in 2018, but he does have some gas left in the tank. His last start was also against these Pirates and he gave up two runs over five innings. He has held Pirate hitters to just a .161 average over 95 at-bats. Mitch Keller pitches for the Pirates and has been equally as effective against the Cardinals, holding them to a .145 average over 43 at-bats. However, Keller also has a 7.82 ERA at home – he’s given up 33 earned runs over 38.0 innings pitched. I don’t expect this to be a very high-scoring game even with Keller’s struggles. Play the under 9 runs at -118. I’m also sprinkling the Cardinals run line (+100) and even adding a Cardinals/under parlay at +185.
Twins vs. Red Sox
I’m not going to talk about much other than Chris Sale here, so if you feel like skipping this, and seeing the play – it is Sale over 7.5 strikeouts at +112. Since returning from the injured list, he’s had a five strikeout game and an eight strikeout game. In both of them, he went only five innings. I think that he can make it through six innings tonight and should get to eight strikeouts against a Twins team that has struck out nearly 10 times per game over the last three games. If you aren’t comfortable playing this (and I’m mostly playing it based on plus money being offered) you can go with the other option I like of the Twins scoring under 3.5 runs (-128) – just watch out for the bullpen.
Yankees vs. Athletics
Jameson Taillon is someone that I rely on for the Yankees when he starts at home. When he pitches as an away pitcher, it is a completely different story. As a road starter, he has a 4.70 ERA, and it isn’t a result of the long ball. He just isn’t as effective for some reason. He does have a very strong track record against the Athletics, holding them to just .160 average over 29 at-bats. James Kaprielian, on the other hand is significantly better at home – he is almost 3.50 runs better from an ERA standpoint at home as opposed to road starts. This season, he hasn’t had a home start with more than three runs allowed. I’m playing the Athletics to win the game through five innings at -105. I’m also sprinkling Joey Gallo to homer in this game – he has four hits against Kaprielian in his career, three of them have left the yard (+200).