MLB Best Bets for Thursday, August 12, 2021

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Someone asked about what percentage we are hitting on… over the last month, it has been about 50% but we’ve also had some nice plus money wins – some actual plays, and some sprinkles. Some days are great, some days are just disasters like yesterday. Since I started doing this, I find that I get more 2-1 days than anything. In any case, I give a justification either way, but ultimately it is your money. Onto Thursday’s games.

Reds vs. Braves

Vladimir Gutierrez is a Jekyll and Hyde when it comes to home and road appearances. On the road he is much more of a tolerable starter – he has just a 3.11 ERA, almost three full runs lower than when he pitches at Great American Ball Park. Kyle Muller hasn’t had nearly as many starts, but he is experiencing the same phenomenon of better on the road than at home. As a home starter, he has 10 earned runs in 20.1 innings. In 14 at-bats against Muller, no Reds hitter has gotten a hit. Braves hitters, on the other hand, are hitting Gutierrez pretty well – a .296 clip. As a result, I’m going to play the over on 5.5 runs in the first half of the game at -112.

Toronto vs. Angels

Jose Berrios has been as good as hoped in his two starts for the Blue Jays. Since being acquired from the Twins, he has thrown 12 innings and given up one earned run. He has been really successful against the Angels hitters, holding them to just 12 hits in 70 at-bats. On the other side, for the Angels, is the sensation Shohei Othani. He’s been even better at home, posting a 1.79 ERA as a home starter. Against the Blue Jays, he has held them to just a .142 average but it is in just 26 career at-bats. Yesterday, the Blue Jays busted the game open, I don’t see that happening and expect this to be low scoring at least through the first half of the game. Play the under 4.5 runs at -128.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks

Yu Darvish pitches tonight, and if you know anything about him, he has seemingly an unlimited number of different pitches. That can make it pretty difficult to know what is coming next as a hitter. Darvish has pitched against the Diamondbacks three times this season and has progressively increased his strikeout totals from six the first game, to seven the second, and 12 in his last appearance just a week ago. The Diamondbacks are striking out nine times a game on average, and have struck out an average of 11.33 times in the last three games. He has only had two of his eight road starts exceeding the total posted tonight, but I like him to get over 7.5 strikeouts at +128.

Written by David Troy

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