MLB Best Bets for Sunday, October 3, 2021

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Yesterday we really took a kick to the groin, but we are going to get back up and end the season strong before the playoffs start. With about six teams left having something to play for, and the others just playing, let’s see where we can identify some betting opportunities. And, thank you to all of those who have tailed, followed, liked, retweeted, and even shared that… well… my picks didn’t make you happy. It all is motivation to keep getting better. See you in the playoffs.

Cubs vs. Cardinals

The Cubs have nothing to play for, and the Cardinals really don’t either. They know they will be in the Wild Card game, as of now, they just don’t know who they will face. The Cubs have one of their better starters going in Alec Mills. Mills has a 5ish run ERA just about across the board with his splits, and only one start against the Cardinals. In that start, he went four innings and allowed five runs, but just one was earned. Jake Woodford is making his eighth start of the season for the Cardinals. In four appearances against the Cubs, he’s allowed five runs over 13.1 innings, which is okay. He’s also allowed 17 baserunners, which is concerning. Considering the Cubs have an okay pitcher, and the Cardinals are likely to look at this game as a way to just get everyone to the playoffs healthy, I’ll play the Cubs at +130.

Twins vs. Royals

Well, I was pretty far off on my play yesterday on them, but I’m coming back for more. Today’s run total is at 10 right now, but it is dropping. The opening line isn’t very surprising considering that Jackson Kowar – the Royals starter – has allowed 33 earned runs in 26.1 innings. Charlie Barnes – the Twins starter – has allowed 13 earned runs in 13.2 road innings. So, neither has been good at keeping people off the board. However, they are both facing the opposition for the first time and that can lead to good things for the pitcher. Wind should not be a factor in this game, which also helps the pitching staffs. What I do like is that the number is so high, because I think this game goes under the total. Just because you have two bad pitchers pitching doesn’t mean runs are going to be scored immediately. I’m sure some of these guys know it is the last day and just want to get out of there. I’ll play the under 10 at -108. I also might sprinkle the under and Royals for +240, the Royals are pretty good against lefty starters.

Rays vs. Yankees

This one matters. I could be wrong because all of the combinations are tripping me up, but I believe if the Yankees win, they are in the Wild Card game. Lucky for them, they have Jameson Taillon pitching for them. When he is at home, he is a better pitcher – a 3.40 home ERA. Tampa has been able to hit him pretty well this year though so there is cause for concern. Today is one of those games that should help the Yankees know if he is a reliable playoff starter, or just another innings eater during the regular season. Michael Wacha goes for the Rays, and he’s been fine. Nothing spectacular about him, but nothing bad either. Against the Yankees, he’s only allowed four earned runs in 16.2 innings. I like this to be a pitcher’s duel and will play the under 9 runs at -104.

Written by David Troy

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