MLB Best Bets for Sunday, October 10, 2021

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Only two games yesterday in baseball, and we won them both. We get another two-game day with the AL series picking back up, so let’s try and get another two wins.

Rays at Red Sox

The last time Nathan Eovaldi took the hill, it was to pitch the Red Sox into the current matchup with the Rays. It honestly might’ve been the best he’s looked all year. This will likely be a struggle for the Rays as they have not fared well against Eovaldi this season. In four starts, he has allowed just seven earned runs over 26.1 innings. And, five of those earned runs came in his only road start against them. Facing the Rays at Fenway, he tossed 21 innings and only two earned runs allowed over three starts. In an attempt to combat Eovaldi’s dominance is Drew Rasmussen, a mid-season pickup that was a reliever and is now starting for the Rays. To be clear, they aren’t really using him as an opener, but an actual “throw-five-plus-innings” starter. He’s done well in that role. He’s had eight straight starts and over 37 innings, he’s allowed just six earned runs in those games. Against Boston, he’s allowed four earned in 15.2 innings, which is pretty strong. I’m going to play the under 4.5 runs in the first five innings at -106. I’d also lean towards the Red Sox winning the game, but not an official play.

Astros vs. White Sox

The White Sox are throwing Dylan Cease. I guess Carlos Rodon is not healthy enough to pitch or they don’t have confidence in him having a full outing. I’m really not sure what the reasoning is, nonetheless, Cease is taking the ball. Cease is a much better home starter, 3.18 ERA compared to a 4.69 road ERA, so he should have a certain comfort level. He’s started against the Astros twice though and allowed nine earned runs over nine innings. His home start against them was better (only three of the nine runs were allowed at home), so again, hope. Another guy with drastic splits starts for the Astros in Luis Garcia. Garcia is almost two full runs better as a home starter than on the road. The problem is, the Astros are playing on the road. Looking for some hope for the Astros? Sure, in Garcia’s only start against the White Sox, he pitched seven innings of one-run ball. It was at home, and he also allowed seven hits, so two things that still don’t give me much confidence. I’m going to play the over 8.5 on this one at -105.

Written by David Troy

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