We were well on our way to a 2-1 evening when the Pirates, of all teams, posted a 3-run ninth to ruin our day and drop us to 1-2. Get it back today.
Brewers at Cardinals
Corbin Burnes vs. Miles Mikolas is one of the better pitching matchups you’ll get. Burnes, last year’s Cy Young winner picks up basically where he left off and has been dominant on the road this year. In his five road starts, he has just a 1.74 ERA. Miles Mikolas has a 1.96 ERA on the entire season and a 2.27 ERA at home. I think both of these pitchers should get deep into the game and we could see a really low-scoring affair. Two of the first three games went seven or less runs, and neither pitcher has really bad history against the opposing hitters. One word of caution, both starters have higher ERA’s during the day, but I think this still goes under 7 runs.
Royals at Twins
I kind of have to imagine that Zach Greinke is on his last legs as a starting pitcher. He’s 38 years old, and had a great career, but just doesn’t seem to be fooling anyone the way he used to. Obviously, that is to be expected. Sonny Gray has been good for the Twins in his first season with them. He’s got a 1.80 ERA at home and 2.60 ERA overall. I think the Royals will score a couple of runs off of him, but that’s about it. I am going to take the Twins run line at +105. It isn’t extreme value here, but I’d rather do that than lay -200.
Phillies at Mets
After a somewhat tumultuous start to the season, Zack Wheeler has put together a span of four of five quality starts, and the Phillies have won four of his five starts. Their one loss was a 2-1 extra-innings loss to the Rangers. Today he has the Mets, a team he likely still holds a grudge against. He opened the season against them and went 4.2 innings, allowing just two hits and one earned run. Chris Bassitt goes for the Mets and the one thing you don’t see much of on this stat line is zeros. He has allowed 42 baserunners in his 29 innings this month. That typically spells trouble. I’m going to take the Phillies in this one at +100.