MLB Best Bets for Sunday, July 31, 2022

Unfortunately, the weekends have not been kind to us lately. We’ve more than made up for it during the week so our bankroll is still sitting pretty, but let’s try and have a nice rebound today.

Rangers vs. Angels

Dane Dunning has completed 50 innings on the road, and 50 innings at home. At home, he’s allowed a reasonable 19 earned runs. On the road? He’s given up about twenty more hits, and 11 more earned runs. Today, he takes on the Angels for the end of the series matchup. His July ERA over three starts is an inflated 6.39. Oddly enough, the Rangers have lost all but one game Dunning has started for them since May. That is a span of 14 starts. The one win they had in that stretch though was against the Angels. Reid Detmers has been pretty good as of late for the Angels. Over his last three starts he’s allowed just two earned runs over 17 innings. This is a game for the Angels to win. Play them at -112.

Twins vs. Padres

For some reason, they continue to let Dylan Bundy pitch. This isn’t a “go-nowhere” team. This is a team in the Twins that has playoff hopes. I know that they haven’t won a playoff game (not a series, a game) in like a half-century, but still… He has kept them in games the past few outings, but it isn’t a matter of them winning because of him. On the road, he has a 6.41 ERA and I don’t know that this will get better. Sean Manaea hasn’t been great for the Padres though either. He has a 4.53 ERA and this will be considered a day game. In day games, he has a 6.53 ERA. This is an over 8.5 to me.

Cubs vs. Giants

Well, by this time, the Cubs could look completely different. With all the expected trades, this game is a little harder to predict. However, I still think the Giants should win this with relative ease because of Carlos Rodon on the hill. Rodon has a 2.05 ERA and despite two bad starts in a row, he has shown that he can rebound pretty quickly from poor performances. For whatever reason, the NL West is hitting him pretty well, but only the Cardinals have done well against him in the NL Central. Adrian Sampson, if he is not traded, has been a nice addition for the Cubs. In only two road starts, he has gone 10.2 innings and allowed just three earned runs. I imagine he will not be super reliable all the time, but for now, his games are rather low scoring, as are Rodon’s. And, with a bummed-out lineup for the Cubs, I’d expect this to go under 7.5.

Written by David Troy

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