MLB Best Bets for Sunday, July 24, 2022

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Yeesh. Yesterday was very ugly. I was dead wrong about the Mets/Padres game. The other two games of an 0-3 day were tough to accept. The Guardians had the game under control, blew it. The Twins and Tigers combined for nine runs in the final three innings. Either way, a loss is a loss, but we can try to get that back today.

Astros vs. Mariners

The Astros are clearly the class of this division, but the Mariners do look like they are getting things together and starting to be a better team. Unfortunately for them, they’ve already lost back-to-back games against Houston and now are trying to avoid a sweep. Luckily for Seattle, they have Robbie Ray, their highly paid Ace, going to battle for them today. Ray has a nice seven consecutive quality start streak going. His last start that wasn’t quality? It was against Houston, but he went five innings, allowed three earned, and the Mariners won that game. Framber Valdez has somehow dodged the Mariners the entire season to this point. He’s pitching great this year, so this should be a pretty low scoring game. This is a bit risky, but I’ll play under 3.5 through 5 innings at -115. I’m also going to put a sprinkle on the 1st Half Tie at +430.

Nationals vs. Diamondbacks

Erick Fedde is throwing for the Nationals and normally that would be an autofade on my side. But, he is facing the Diamondbacks. Even though Arizona has been better than I thought they would be, they still don’t scare me enough to just auto-bet them. After a nice June, Fedde has had one terrible start in July and two decent ones. He has struggled on the road, allowing 23 earned in 37.2 innings. For the Diamondbacks, we have Corbin Martin. He’s not gone deep into any game, but he really hasn’t let any of his appearances get out of control either. I think the game should be lower scoring and will play the under 5.5 through 5 innings. I could see the whole game going under but the bullpen issues are scaring me off of this.

Padres vs. Mets

Speaking of auto-bets, Joe Musgrove was an auto-bet for me on the opponent team total under. That hasn’t been the case. After not allowing more than two earned runs in his first 13 starts, he has allowed five or more earned in two of his last four starts. Carlos Carrasco has been solid for the Mets, mostly at home though. He’s not someone that I want to back constantly, but I do like the guy. He’s had a stellar July, allowing three earned in 17.1 innings. However, he’ also allowed 23 baserunners in that span. So he is dodging trouble. Still, I’m not ready to leave Musgrove yet. I think he’s the better pitcher. The Padres are the team to beat in this one at +108.

Written by David Troy

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