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Well, we came crashing down yesterday. We were close, one too many runs in the Cubs game, one too many runs scored in the first five innings of the Mets game, and a couple of strikeouts short from Woodruff. Unfortunately, close doesn’t count in anything but horseshoes or hand grenades, as the saying goes. Let’s do better today.
Reds vs. Mets
Marcus Stroman has been a bright spot for the Mets rotation this season. In his five July starts, he had three that were shortened doubleheader games which might be part of the reason he only threw five innings in those games. Stroman has also had good success against Reds hitters, holding them to a .105 average in 56 at-bats. Vladimir Gutierrez has been much more successful for the Reds on the road than at home. However, he is in the limited opportunities he’s had against the Mets, he has not missed many bats (they are 9-19 against him). In four innings against them just two starts ago, he gave up six earned runs. I am playing the Mets run line today at +102.
Mariners vs. Rangers
A battle between two of the bottom dwellers in the AL West brings us an opportunity to find some value. Neither pitcher is super exciting; the Mariners bring lefty Marco Gonzales to the hill. He has not been good against Rangers hitters, giving up a .367 average. Of the 16 hits Gonzales has given up, 10 of the hits were for extra bases. He also has an ERA north of six runs as an away starter. For the Rangers Mike Foltynewicz pitches and he’s given up four or more runs in three of his last five starts. One bright spot is that the Mariners hitters are batting just .192 against him. I think that the wrong team is favored here and that the Rangers win the game at +124. I also would be fine with a sprinkle on the Rangers and over 8.5 runs at +340.
Red Sox vs. Rays
So far this season, Nick Pivetta of the Red Sox has faced the Rays twice and pitched 11.2 scoreless innings surrendering just two hits. Lefty Shane McClanahan has never faced the Red Sox, but the BoSox are hitting lefties at a .261 cliff this year, which is fifth-best in the majors. Both games in this series have scored over 10 runs and the Rays have won both. Money is flying the opposite ways of what I feel on this game. My official play is on the Red Sox to win the game at +142, but I do lean towards the under. If you wanted to parlay them, go ahead, but don’t do more than a little sprinkle at +380.