MLB Best Bets for Saturday, October 9, 2021

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Just a short two-game slate today with the NL series going while the AL series use a travel day. Let’s see what plays we can get from the two games.

Braves vs. Brewers

Max Fried throws for the Braves in Game 2 of the series. I liked Fried before the year to continue his success from 2020, and ultimately he ended with a 14-7 record and 3.04 ERA. He had pretty balanced splits, overall, but did allow double the home runs on the road as opposed to at home. Like his rotation-mate, Charlie Morton, he has been superb since August, posting a sub-2 ERA in both August and September. He did not face the Brewers this year. Brandon Woodruff has been awesome this season, too. At home, he has just a 2.31 ERA, but he had a rough September – the Brewers lost every one of his starts, and he allowed 10 earned runs in 22 innings. Play the Braves to win at +104.

Dodgers vs. Giants

After a Giants victory in Game 1, the Dodgers look to rebound. It seems crazy to me that the two best teams in baseball need to square off before the Championship series, but whatever. Nonetheless, tonight we have Julio Urias facing Kevin Gausman. First, Gausman finished with a 2.81 ERA and was one of the many pleasant surprises for the Giants this season. One concern I have for him starting this game though is that he has a 3.44 ERA at home, a full run higher than on the road. He also is a full run higher in night starts than day starts. In three starts against the Dodgers, he was strong, only allowing five earned runs in 14 innings. Julio Urias’ splits actually benefit him a bit more this game. Urias has a 2.71 ERA on the road, but at night he is a 3.23 ERA pitcher. He faced the Giants five times and allowed 11 earned runs over 29.1 innings. I think the Dodgers pull this one out at -118.

Written by David Troy

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