MLB Best Bets for Saturday, October 2nd, 2021

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Here we are, on the eve of the last day of the regular season… well, maybe. I guess it really depends on what happens with the AL Wild Card spots. Four teams still have something to play for at this point, but we are on our own quest. We were going for a streak of 12-0 but we lost with the Astros and Athletics allowing eight runs in the 8th last night. Still, 5-1 is nothing to be upset about.

Reds vs. Pirates

Tyler Mahle has been outstanding on the road this year and looks to end the season on a high note. Over 17 starts, he has a 1.85 ERA. He has faced Pittsburgh four times this year and only allowed six runs in 22.2 innings. Just an incredible performance from him this year as a road pitcher. At PNC park, even better, 11.1 innings, just one run allowed. Today he closes the season on the road, against Pittsburgh. Play the Pirates to get under 3.5 runs at -114.

Twins vs. Royals

Another one that I’m really only going to talk about one side of the game. The Kansas City Royals get to face off against Griffin Jax of the Twins. Jax has allowed 20 runs in his last 23.1 innings, and 43 runs in his last 50.1 innings. In two starts against the Royals, he’s allowed 10 runs over 11 innings. Last time he faced them, he allowed four runs and the first time, which was at Kauffman Stadium, he allowed six. Play the Royals over 4.5 runs at -115.

Brewers vs. Dodgers

It isn’t every day that you find a Cy Young favorite as a plus money underdog. But, then again, that’s what happens when he has to face one of the best teams in the Majors. Tonight, Corbin Burnes takes on the Dodgers and has the potential to either solidify or hurt his chance at bringing home the trophy. I personally think he solidifies it as the Brewers win the game tonight. Burnes has a 1.64 road ERA and has been spectacular against teams the first two times through the lineup. As long as he doesn’t go more than six innings, the Brewers should win. For the Dodgers, Julio Urias goes for the impressive, but ultimately meaningless stat of winning 20 games. On any other pitching staff, he would really stand out: 19-3 with a 3.01 WRA. He’s faced Milwaukee once and was very strong holding them to just one run over seven innings. I like the Brewers to win the game in this one though as I do think Burnes is the better pitcher. Play the Brewers at +116.

Written by David Troy

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