MLB Best Bets for Saturday, June 4, 2022

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Lost about a half unit yesterday as the Padres decided to make a case for Joe Musgrove to be Cy Young this season. They looked good, my bets the last couple of days have not. But, the good news about baseball is it is every day so you can wipe the slate clean the next day.

Twins at Blue Jays

The Twins are one of the bigger surprises of baseball for me. I expected them to be one of the worst teams in the AL Central, and while there is still time for that to come true, right now, I look to be on the wrong side of that one. Dylan Bundy was a surprise early in the season but now it has balanced out to more of the typical Bundy performances I’ve come to expect. His splits are DRASTIC. At home, he is a .57 ERA pitcher, and on the road he is at 7.50. Jose Berrios, the Blue Jays starter, has very similar splits, but not as drastic. At home, he has a 3.15 ERA. Luckily for the Blue Jays, he is at home, and bad news for the Twins Bundy is pitching on the road. I’ll take the Blue Jays run line at +126.

White Sox at Rays

Speaking of teams I was wrong about… the White Sox are trash. Their pitching has taken a nosedive and their offense is not anywhere near what you thought it would be. They have the tall task of facing Drew Rasmussen today and it won’t be an easy one. With Rasmussen, you have a home ERA of 2.10 and a history of 4-for-17 against him from Sox hitters. He’s had back-to-back tough outings, but he usually can go five innings with allowing one or no runs. Dylan Cease is going for the White Sox. He has to be happy to see the road as he has performed much better on the road than at home. I’m playing under 7 in this one.

Braves at Rockies

Sometimes it can be simple and you play to trends. In this one, we can see that one of the least profitable pitchers through the first five innings of a game is Kyle Freeland. At home, he is throwing to the tun of 22 earned runs and 43 hits in just 31.2 innings. That’s a lot of traffic on the bases. Braves hitters have been very good against him in the past, too. They’ve hit 23-for-63 against him, which is good for a .365 average. If you want to try it, play the run line in the first half (the juice is crazy on most of the first half bets right now). Instead, I’ll take the over 11.5 for the game.

Written by David Troy

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