A rough 1-2 yesterday, but if you chose to take the Mets ML, you went either 2-1 or 2-2. Either way, I try to share what I’m thinking and some statistics behind the picks. If you tail, good luck, if you fade, good luck. Ultimately, we have the same opponent: the books.
Dodgers vs. Braves
We hit this one right on the nose today and are going to try and do the same today. I’m looking at going for a sweep as I already have a play in mind for tomorrow, just need to wait and see what the lines are posted. Anyway, after yesterday’s emotional return for Freddie Freeman, and the easy Dodgers victory, we are headed to the other side of the field today, and backing Max Fried. At home, Fried is someone you can rely on virtually every time. This season, he’s only posted three starts that weren’t quality. And, one of those he went 5.1 innings. The Braves also get the opportunity to try and knock around Mitch White. White has had four starts for the Dodgers, and in his two June starts, he went five innings in both. The Dodgers lost both of the games allowing eight and four runs in the games. Take the Braves run line today at +134.
Phillies vs. Padres
Am I going to do it to myself? Do I really want to suffer through the pain and agony? Yes. Yes, I do. I’m taking the Padres with Blake Snell. You know how many games the Padres have won this season with him starting? One. Tonight will be the second. Snell has been inconsistent at best, and brutal at times. I think his control is most to blame, but I do believe he can keep the Phillies down for most of the game. This, though is more about playing against Zach Eflin. Eflin has allowed 39 hits in just 26 road innings. His ERA is nearly eight runs, and he has only made it to the sixth inning in one road start – a game he allowed seven earned runs. Play the Padres -134.
Athletics vs. Royals
Overs are more fun. You know it, I know it, the books know it. The goal of the game is to try and score runs. (And, of course, the conflicting goal is to stop the opponent from scoring, but let’s not concern ourselves with that right now.) Today we are taking over 9.5 runs at -105 in the game. The Athletics’ Jared Koenig has allowed 10 earned runs in two road starts covering just eight innings. He also is facing a Royals team for the second time in a row that will be looking for revenge. In his last start against the Royals, he went 5.2 innings and only allowed 2 hits. He did walk four batters, the Royals just couldn’t convert. Brad Keller is also coming off his best start of the season. You guessed it, he faced the A’s in that one. Keller went seven innings and allowed just one hit. He’s been okay at home, but he still walks too many and allows a lot of hits. I expect both pitchers to be gone by the fifth innings as the offenses get a chance to make a difference in this game. Play the over. I will only mention this too – I’m probably doing only a half unit on this one as most of the time I don’t trust either offense to score 10 runs in a week.