MLB Best Bets for Saturday, July 9, 2022

We took a rough 1-2 day yesterday and were robbed of a chance at going 2-1 by Angel Hernandez. Next time, I’ll have to ask around and see which team he bet on. If you didn’t see his call in the 9th yesterday… well, check it out. How he has a job still is a mystery.

Rockies vs Diamondbacks

Kyle Freeland isn’t the best starting pitcher to back in the world, but he certainly isn’t the worst. And, in fact, most of what we do with betting is pick spots where it is ideal to bet on someone. In this game, I think it is ideal. Freeland has a nice 3.40 ERA with just three home runs allowed on road starts. He had a tough July start, but he improved in May and June from a tough April start. He’s already faced the Diamonbacks once this year and went six scoreless innings. Madison Bumgarner once was a pitcher that you could afford to bet against. He was so dominant, especially in the playoffs, but now he is a mid-to-back end starter. He’s been decent at home, sporting a 3.23 ERA, but he has allowed almost 70 baserunners in 47 innings. That’s a lot of trouble to work around. I’ll take a shot on the Rockies today at plus money.

Nationals vs. Braves

Patrick Corbin is a pretty instant fade for me. He has definitely improved each month this season, but it is hard to get much worse than allowing 19 earned in 19 innings like he did in April. He has started just one game against the Braves and allowed six earned runs in 2.2 innings. That isn’t likely to happen again today, but the Nationals are also not likely to win. Kyle Wright is pitching for the Braves and he has been great. Aside from a couple of bad games in the middle of June, he has been as reliable as anyone in the league. The Braves are typically winning by margin in his starts. I’ll take the run line even at what I consider a high price of -128.

Giants vs. Padres

Can we just have Rodon pitch in even months? In April and June, he went 59 innings over 10 starts and allowed just 8 runs. That’s superb. In May and July, though he has gone 31 innings and allowed 21 runs. That is a very stark contrast. On the season, most of the damage has been done to him on the road as well. Yu Darvish is a guy that only should be allowed to pitch at home. He has a beautiful 1.75 ERA at home and seems to be very comfortable there. In his last outing, it was a bit harsh against the Dodgers, but overall, he’s been improving each month. I could see this game ending 2-1, but rarely will I take an under 6.5. I’ll instead take the Padres and Darvish to win at -108. He’s been too good at home to pass at this price.

Written by David Troy

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