MLB Best Bets for Saturday, July 2, 2022

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Another 1-2 day and we are looking to stop the skid now. Thankfully, Tony Gonsolin and the Dodgers saved what would’ve been a terrible day otherwise. Let’s get it back today.

Braves vs. Reds

Spencer Strider made me look bad last time I put a play on a game he was involved in. I expected the Dodgers to smack him around and it took some ninth inning heroics to tie the game, then they had to win in extras. Strider threw six scoreless innings that game. Now, he takes on the Reds. He’s been very strong on the road, allowing just six earned runs in 25.1 innings. The Braves get to take on Tyler Mahle today as well, which strengthens my belief that the Braves are the right side. Mahle has allowed 27 earned runs in 47 home innings. Even after posting a nice June, and a five inning no-earned run start against the Braves. Even with his better performance lately, the Braves likely win this one on the runline.

Yankees vs. Guardians

Nestor Cortes has been a good pitcher for the Yankees and very reliable. However, in his last two road starts, he has allowed four earned runs in 4.1 innings in his last two road starts. In one start against Cleveland this year, Cortes went 6.1 innings and allowed just one hit, a two-run home run. Triston McKenzie has been trying to figure it out this season, but hasn’t had much luck in two areas: at home, and in night games. At home, he has allowed 12 earned runs in 22.1 innings. In night games, he has a 6.21 ERA. Guess what the situation he pitches in tonight is: a home night game. Play the Yankees -1.5.

Diamondbacks at Rockies

I’m not sure there is a number high enough for me to not take the over. Dallas Keuchel has been so accommodating to opposing hitters this year, I think he might ask them which pitch they’d like to see before he throws it. He has exactly one start with no runs allowed, and one quality start all season. In his debut against the Tigers, there were 18 runs scored. Austin Gomber has a 6.68 home ERA and this game is in the launching pad that is Coors Field. I’m taking the over 12.5.

Written by David Troy

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