MLB Best Bets for Saturday, July 16, 2022

Another day, another winning one. We pick up a unit as the Marlins bet was the only one that faltered for us. Sometimes it can be frustrating – I liked the value I was getting on the run line, but I even wrote that the run support for Alcantara hasn’t been there lately. They gave him one run against a pitcher that should’ve been hittable. Oh well. No complaints on a winning day.

Mariners vs. Rangers

I’m sure unless you are an avid baseball fan, which there seem to be fewer and fewer of every year, you have no idea who Logan Gilbert or Spencer Howard are. Gilbert is the starter for the Mariners, and he as had a pretty nice season overall, but has started to run into some hiccups lately. He hasn’t posted a quality start in his last four games, after posting one in seven straight. Spencer Howard hasn’t pitched poorly outside of his first outing against the Blue Jays, but he isn’t a guy that you really want to back. I think both pitchers should allow at least three runs, which would put us at six for the game. The bullpens should meltdown and allow the rest that we need to cover 8 runs in this one. Play the over.

Tigers vs. Guardians

I remember a time when Michael Pineda was supposed to be an Ace for a staff, or at least had the stuff to be one. And, in fairness to him, his season hasn’t really been that bad so far. Just two starts ago, he beat the Guardians, going five innings and allowing just two earned on five hits. But, away from Detroit, he hasn’t been quite as good – he’s only had two starts so maybe it is just a small sample size. For the Guardians, Cal Quantrill is throwing. He has yet to have a clean sheet all season. Again, that isn’t to say his performance has been terrible or something. His home numbers are solid, but the games he pitches in have tended to have a lot of runs scored. The total for this one is at 8, and over his last eight starts, all eight have 8+ runs scored in them. I think the streak runs to nine today and I am playing the over.

Mets vs. Cubs (Game 2)

It is a double header in the windy city. In Game 2, we have Max Scherzer facing Drew Smyly in what would essentially be me fighting Mike Tyson. Smyly has allowed 9 earned runs in 16.2 innings at home this year, and even worse, allowed 16 earned in 28.2 innings during night games. He missed all of June only to return in July and allow four earned in two innings. This will be a bit difficult because we will have somewhat of a split squad for the Mets after playing earlier in the day, but I am taking them over their team total of 4.5 at plus money. They’ve swung the bats pretty well in their last two games. I would not be shocked to see the Cubs score less than two runs against the Mets in this game as well.

Written by David Troy

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