MLB Best Bets for Saturday, August 28, 2021

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Two of our three bets last night basically were toast by the end of the first inning. Somehow Dallas Keuchel gave up six runs to the Cubs and was taken out after one inning and one strikeout. In what should’ve been a pitcher’s duel, the Giants and Braves combined for 11 runs. Luckily, the Mariners and Royals saved the day a bit with an easy over. Onto Saturday’s plays…

Reds vs. Marlins

I talk about splits a lot and this game is a great example of how viewing splits can give you a better analysis of the game and see where there might be some potential. On the surface, two pitchers that have high three ERAs would normally lead you to think the game should be listed at 8.5 or something and the over would be likely. Now, aside from the generalization of what I just wrote, this game appeals to me. Vladimir Gutierrez throws for the Reds and he is a better road pitcher – understand Great American Ballpark is a hitters park, but still, his improvement is close to two runs better. In 24 at-bats against him, the Marlins have mustered just three hits. For the Marlins, Sandy Alcantara has been rough on the road, but at home, he is 2.43 ERA pitcher. He has also struck out a third of the batters he’s faced on the Reds (13 in 36 at-bats). Play the under 7.5 runs in this one at -106.

Rockies vs. Dodgers

Jon Gray has faced the Dodgers many times before, and we know they are one of the best teams in baseball. Gray has given up 63 hits in 185 at-bats (.313 average) but been surprisingly effective at keeping the ball in the yard, only eight home runs. He’s made four starts against the Dodgers this season, all of which were solid, he made it through five innings in all starts and gave up three runs or less in all of them. I think tonight, we couple Gray’s effectiveness with a somewhat slumping Dodgers offense and they score less than their total runs of 5.5 at -130.

Nationals vs. Mets

The Nationals are kind of in a tryout period where they are putting pitchers on the mound to evaluate talent. The arm they are using tonight is connected to Sean Nolin, who is making his third start. His first start was against these same New York Mets. In it, he gave up four earned runs and eight hits to the 16 total batters he faced. For the Mets, Marcus Stroman takes the ball. I have enjoyed his pitching all season and think that he should earn a nice payday from the results he’s gotten this year. Too many of his starts only go five innings, but he is very effective at keeping the score low. I don’t see that being different today with the Nationals only hitting .251 off of him and him having a 2.97 ERA at home. I’m playing the under 8.5 at -120. I’m comfortable with the under/Mets moneyline parlay at +175 if you want to try it.

Written by David Troy

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