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Nice night last night with the Braves coming back and covering the run line, hitting a +230 parlay, and the Cardinals sweeping on every recommendation that I provided yesterday. The only loss was a Cubs game which I said “one bad inning could make this fly over”… the Marlins scored 11 runs in the second. I was just unfortunately on the wrong side of it. Let’s get to it today.
Orioles vs. Red Sox
I mentioned the other day that the Orioles were the second-best team at hitting lefties in the American League. Chris Sale is not your average lefty. He makes a return against the bottom-dwelling Orioles after not pitching for almost exactly two years. Sale has made five minor league starts, including 4.2 innings in his last one before being called back up. I can’t imagine he pitches that many innings today, even if he goes well, I have to imagine they pull him after five innings. Then the Red Sox bullpen takes over, and their bullpen isn’t great. They have a collective 4.01 ERA, which is about middle of the pack for the majors. This leads me to think that the Orioles can grab a run or two against Sale, and then a few against the bullpen. I’m playing the Orioles team total over 3.5 runs at -118.
Dodgers vs. Mets
I’m giving this out as a value future play as well as a play on today’s game. Walker Buehler is +350 to win the Cy Young. I like that a lot better than Zach Wheeler, the current favorite. Play at your own risk, as a lot can change but the guy is the leader in ERA in the National League, 11th in strikeouts, fifth in average against him, second in wins, and fifth in WAR. So… he’s really good. He pitches against the Mets today, a team that is significantly struggling. For the Mets, Taijuan Walker has had some very nice starts and overall been a serviceable pitcher. He faces the daunting Dodgers lineup today, but has held them to a.225 average in 66 at-bats against him. I think that this game is likely an under and that the Dodgers cover the run line. The run line will be my official play at -110, but do recommend a sprinkle on the Dodgers and under 8.5 runs. You can play the run line parlay at +310 or moneyline parlay at +210.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners
Hyun Jin Ryu takes the mound for Toronto tonight against a Mariners team that is fighting for a playoff spot. This is a big series for both teams as they are right next to each other in the wild card race. The Mariners are hitting .278 in 17 at-bats against Ryu. Additionally, Ryu is coming off the worst start of his season. Yusei Kikuchi pitches for the Mariners and he has had a tougher go at home than he has on the road. Kikuchi has a 4.53 ERA at home and a 4.94 ERA during night games. He’s done admirably against the Blue Jays in his career, holding them to a .140 average in 63 at-bats. I like the Mariners chances to win this game tonight at +128.