MLB Best Bets for Monday, May 23, 2022

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2-0 day yesterday, it was nice to have an easy one and need no sweat. Let’s get to this next week of games on the right foot.

Rockies at Pirates

The Rockies are night and day when it comes to splits on the home and road. They have been for quite some time, but it is still worth pointing out. At home, you can find great value in taking them, and on the road, you can usually find good value on taking their opponent. One Rockies pitcher, Chad Kuhl, is better on the road – also fairly normal given that Coors is such a hitters field. Kuhl pitched pretty well in April, but his last two May starts have seen him revert back to a struggling starter. JT Brubaker for the Pirates is not very good either. He basically is going to allow two or three runs in five innings. Brubaker though has had decent success against the few Rockies hitters he has faced. I think the Pirates should win this and I do think the over is the right play, but I don’t trust either offense. Play the Pirates at -130.

Cubs at Reds

The Reds had a really terrible stretch, and will still be a terrible baseball team, but they have won four of their last five games. The Cubs are also terrible, and will also still be terrible. They’ve lost four of their last five games. So why do we care about this game? Gambling of course! The Cubs have Drew Smyly on the mound. He’s actually been okay for the Cubs, but he has allowed a ton of runners. The good news for him, again, is that they are playing the Reds who can’t really score. The Cubs get to face Vladimir Gutierrez who has been a super friendly pitcher to hitters this season. He’s allowed 25 earned runs in 26 innings this season. He also has 19 walks and 19 strikeouts. Cubs hitters are not great against him, but they are the only way I can look in this one. Cubs -134. (Bonus fun: Ian Happ to homer +370)

Orioles at Yankees

Jordan Lyles is throwing for the Orioles and this will already be the fourth matchup against the Yankees this season. In his only New York start, he went 4.2 innings and allowed 6 earned runs. This is Gerritt Cole’s second start against the Orioles. In the first one, he went 7 innings and allowed just two earned runs. Cole is on a roll lately and even though his last start came against the Orioles, I don’t think they will have an answer for him. I’ll take their under 2.5 team total at -110.

Written by David Troy

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