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Another 2-1 day for us in baseball yesterday. I wasn’t even close on the loss, unfortunately, but that’s how it will go at times. Today is a new day and we have a smaller-than-normal slate, but still have opportunities.
Braves vs. Mets
I am a big fan of Max Fried, I think he is a terrific pitcher, but there are certainly times when he can’t get it all figured out. Maybe it is due to his young age, but it could also be that I overvalue him. That’s a situation you always need to evaluate in capping games. Right now, Fried has thrown back-to-back quality starts. He’s allowed 30 hits in 119 at-bats against him, my biggest concern about him is that he’s allowed 10 of the 30 hits to go for extra bases, which means when he is it, he is hit hard. For the Mets, Chris Bassitt is having a really nice start to the season. He’s not had much experience against the Braves, but the hitters that he has faced have been successful. Both of these pitchers are good, but 6.5 is too low for the total. I’ll take the over at -114.
Mariners vs. Astros
Marco Gonzales might be an okay pitcher overall, but the outcomes of his games have not been good – with the exception of one game. His most recent start against the Astros was by far his best of the season. Somehow, he already has two starts of the season where he allowed two earned runs but six total runs. I really don’t expect him to dominate the Astros like he did last time. Historically, he’s allowed them to hit .303 against him in his career. For the Astros, Jake Odorizzi starts, and he has struggled a bit to begin the season. His last start was against the Rangers and he may have finally got it together. Though, the Mariners have hit Odorizzi pretty well in the past. I think both of these pitchers are primed to allow runs. Play over 8.5 at -122.
Rays vs. Athletics
We have another game here where the line is just too low in my book. Games with 6.5 runs need basically everything to go correctly in order for the under to hit. Drew Rasmussen, and Daulton Jefferies are both having nice starts to their campaigns, but in a combined 37.1 innings, they’ve allowed 39 baserunners. That’s a lot of traffic to assume they won’t give up many runs. The one bit of reservation I have is that the teams haven’t seen either pitcher in the past – so the first time through the lineup, the upper hand should be with the pitchers. I’d take the over for the game, but I think the better play is the first inning to have no runs at -134.