We have a fairly full slate for MLB. Let’s take to the diamond and see if we can turn a triple play with MLB best bets for Monday, June 28, 2021.
Giants vs. Dodgers
I never thought I’d write this sentence, but it feels like Anthony DeSclafani is a more reliable pitcher right now than Trevor Bauer. DeSclafani is actually the third most profitable pitcher in the first five innings in the majors this year. Part of that has to be because people are expecting him to pitch closer to his career 4.11 ERA than his current 2.77 ERA. Neither team has a great track record (limited sample size) against the other pitcher, and I’d pick the Giants moneyline in the first five innings. But, this one has too much value for me to pass up… I’m taking the first five innings to be a draw at +500. I don’t think it is a great bet, but the value is there.
This is mostly based on the starting pitching and the teams those starters are facing. I am taking Grienke and the Astros to beat the Orioles. In addition, I’m taking the Indians and Eli Morgan to beat the Tigers. This moneyline parlay pays at +114. Both lines have moved towards the home teams in these games and I would expect that to continue, so try to lock this in early. Astros/Indians parlay.
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals
Both teams have a relief pitcher scheduled to “start” the game today. The Diamondbacks have the third-worst bullpen ERA in the National League, and the Cardinals are in the bottom third as well. The wind is also blowing out towards left field. I think this game will go over the posted total of 9. I am seeing money coming in on the under and the game opened at some shops at 9.5. I just don’t have faith that either bullpen will keep either team in check. Play over 9 runs, unless you want to see if it drops again and grab over 8.5. Either way, I’m playing the over.