MLB Best Bets for Monday, June 27, 2022

It doesn’t always need to go the way you envisioned for it to be a victory. Last night was one of those nights. We took the Dodgers down for multiple units, we took the under on the Braves team total, and cashed, and then went 1-1 in the other. So, I’ll close the week 3-1 and those Dodgers pulled it out for us after doing nothing offensively for the first eight innings.

Dodgers vs. Rockies

I don’t know that this is much of a strategy, but it is something. I’m taking the Rockies today at +162. The Rockies are better at home, they are just a .500 team at home, but two-thirds of their total wins have come at Coors Field. The reason for backing them actually has more to do with the Dodgers than it does with the Rockies. The Rockies were able to head home after their loss in Minnesota that was early in the day. The Dodgers (thankfully) had to play extra innings in the last game of the day in Atlanta, and now turn around to play the Rockies. Chad Kuhl has a 3.29 ERA at his home ballpark as well. I like the value I’m getting here.

White Sox vs. Angels

Splits are very real. If you read these articles, you’ll know I focus in on these as a starting point for handicapping. I can’t, or maybe just don’t, share every single thing I look into with these plays, but that’s one that I like to discuss. Lucas Giolito has really struggled on the road. He hasn’t been able to keep people off the basepaths, and in just 34.1 innings he has allowed 22 earned runs. Conversely, Noah Syndergaard needs to only pitch in Los Angeles. He has started six games at home and allowed just 10 earned runs in 37.2 innings. This is the game to take the Angels, even at a higher price than I like to pay with them.

Twins vs. Guardians

You know who has been very under-the-radar good this season? Sonny Gray. With a 2.53 ERA in nine starts, Gray has been really strong for the Twins. On the road he has been fine too with a 2.84 ERA. The problem is that he doesn’t go very deep into games. He’s faced the Guardians twice now on the season, including in his previous start. In eight innings against them, he’s allowed five earned runs. The total runs in both of those games – 42 runs between the two teams in two games. Triston McKenzie has been pretty solid overall on the season. He only has three starts at home, but has allowed just five earned runs in 16.1 innings. He’s had 11.1 innings against the Twins and has allowed 9 earned. I’ll take the over 8 in this one at -114.

Written by David Troy

Leave a Reply