MLB Best Bets for Monday, August 9, 2021
Great night cap last night, hitting a no-sweat same game parlay at +237 on the White Sox and Cubs. Today is a significantly shorter slate. I’m going to give you three plays, but read close not all will be full unit plays.
Brewers vs. Cubs
The Cubs are basically a minor league baseball team right now, which is crazy considering they were in playoff contention for the first few months of the season. Now we have Alec Mills auditioning for a long-term role against the Brewers, who are still fighting to keep their divisional lead. Mills has actually been good at Wrigley, especially in comparison to his road performance. Against the Brewers, it has been mostly positive as well. Last year, he threw a no-hitter against them. In four appearances against them this season (8.1 innings) he’s given up three earned runs. For the Brew Crew, they send Freddy Peralta. Peralta is making his 21st start this season and has a 2.21 ERA which is stellar. 8, 10, 7, 8 – those are the strikeouts against the Cubs this season from Peralta. I’m playing the under on this game as an official play. I’d lean towards Peralta getting 10+ strikeouts tonight at +250 (the Cubs are 29th in baseball in strikeouts and have struck out 45 times in the last three games).
Marlins vs. Padres
Zach Thompson has been a bright spot for the Marlins this season. Going into tonight, he is the owner of a 2.53 ERA. One spot he has struggled, though, is night games. In four night starts, he’s surrendered 2/3rds of his earned runs and never won a game. Joe Musgrove has arguably been the Padres best pitcher this season, carrying a 2.87 ERA. Unlike Thompson, Musgrove is actually better at night, statistically. He has also been dominant against Marlins hitters, holding them to a .143 average in only 25 at-bats. I personally think the Padres win this game, I’d lean runline but I’m more interested in their team total of 4.5 runs. I’m going to play them on the under.
Longshot Parlay
Let’s have a bit of fun here. I’m going to combine all my leans/notes that I can on this one game and just list a longshot parlay and see if it happens. I like doing this on days where there are few games. You can spend a bit more time on each game this way. No guarantee this happens, obviously, but let’s take a shot:
Play it cautiously.