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A fairly large slate (for a Monday) awaits us, but there is still money to be made on these MLB games for today. Let’s do it!
Brewers vs. Giants
Corbin Burnes is the second favorite to win the NL Cy Young at +200 and tonight he faces the team with the best record in the Majors, the San Francisco Giants. Burnes has a 1.87 road ERA, but he does struggle at night – relative to his road success at least. In eight of his last ten starts, Burnes has allowed one or fewer earned runs. For the Giants, Johnny Cueto takes the hill and brings a stronger track record at home – a 3.09 ERA. Cueto, like most Giant pitchers, is limited to about five innings before they turn the ball over to the bullpen. It has been successful and Cueto has done his part to limit the damage in the first few innings. The Brewers hitters are batting .275 against Cueto. I’m playing the Brewers to win at -130. Brewers and under 7.5 pays +250.
Phillies vs. Nationals
Remember a few weeks ago when Zack Wheeler was the Cy Young favorite? Since then he’s had three consecutive starts and four of his last five, where he’s given up four or more, earned runs. Wheeler is still an effective starter, even if his recent results don’t reflect that. The Nationals hitters though are very familiar with him and are hitting .280 against him. Josiah Gray has been no slouch since coming over in the blockbuster Dodgers trade. Gray has thrown three consecutive quality starts and five consecutive starts with five innings and less than three runs allowed. In his one start against Philadelphia earlier this season, he surrendered just one run in five innings. I like Gray to keep the score low for the game and Wheeler should rebound against a depleted Nationals team. Play the under 8.5 at -115.
Red Sox vs. Rays
This is a big series for both teams. Not a make-or-break, per se, but nonetheless, a big series that has playoff implications. For the Red Sox, they have one of their more inconsistent pitchers – Nick Pivetta – opening the series. In some games, Pivetta is dominant and keeping hitters off-balance. In other games, Pivetta is allowing everyone to get a hit and allowing a ton of runs. Against the Rays, Pivetta has been the former. He’s held them to just five hits in 52 at-bats. Luis Patino throws for the Rays and he has been very successful at home, posting a 2.10 ERA. The problem has been that when he pitches at night, he has a 6.19 ERA. He faced the Red Sox one time already this season and he went six innings giving up four hits – two left the yard to account for all four runs allowed. Tonight, I think that the inconsistencies of the pitchers come out and we get over 8.5 runs (-122).