MLB Best Bets for Friday, October 8, 2021

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We had a great day yesterday with a 2-0 day on our plays, and we picked the Astros and Rays to win the series, both of them are up a game. Today, the National League series starts, let’s break down those two series really quickly and provide any plays for the day.

Dodgers vs. Giants

I personally think the Dodgers are the best team in baseball. They finally posted series pricing and the Dodgers are -152 favorites. I like that bet, but don’t love it as there isn’t much value, and the Giants were the best team in baseball this season (albeit by one game).

Braves vs. Brewers

The Brewers have a very strong three-man rotation they can go to and one of the best closers in baseball. The Braves have finally had their pitchers round into shape and their revamped outfield seems like it carried them to the playoffs. This is mostly because I like the plus money, but I’m going to play the Braves in this series to win at +124.

White Sox vs. Astros

Today is a matchup between Lucas Giolito and Framber Valdez. My initial reaction was that this should be a landslide victory for the Astros, and I do still feel they will win, but after looking at the numbers, I have some hesitation and won’t play the moneyline. Instead, I’m taking the under 8 runs at -118. Here’s why: Giolito has been a strong contributor to the White Sox rotation, and in one appearance vs. the Astros, he had arguably his best start of the year. He threw a complete game and allowed just one earned run. Over his career, he has held the Astros to just 17 hits in 88 at-bats. Now, nine of those hits went for extra bases, but still, that’s a good stretch of dominance. Framber Valdez has also been good for the Astros. He faced the White Sox twice and allowed six earned over 13.1 innings. Valdez has also been worse at home, but he still sports just a 3.45 ERA at Minute Maid Park.

Braves vs. Brewers

This is what Charlie Morton was brought here for, the playoffs. Morton has been significantly better down the stretch and it couldn’t come at a better time. Since August, he has a sub-3 ERA, and has only one start where he allowed more than three earned runs. Against the Brewers, he had one start this season and allowed two earned over six innings. He has been a better road pitcher than at home, but he does have a 4.17 ERA during “day” starts. I think that’s what this would be considered. Corbin Burnes might be the Cy Young, but potentially his worst start of the season came against the Braves. In it, he allowed five earned runs in just four innings. Burnes also is not as strong at home as he is on the road (though his day game ERA is 1.53). I’m going to play the over 7 runs in this one at -115.

Written by David Troy

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