MLB Best Bets for Friday, June 3, 2022

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We had only two official plays on the day, and we had one win, and one loss. We again succumb to runs after the fifth inning so maybe the focus needs to shift to the first half of the game. Let’s try and start a nice run here.

Diamondbacks at Pirates

Merrill Kelly has been hit hard his last four starts after a really strong beginning to the year, but today he goes against the Pirates. With the exception of three at-bats against Josh VanMeter, he has never faced any Pirates hitters. He’s been much stronger at home than on the road, but he allowed 12 earned runs in 20 innings on the road. JT Brubaker goes for the Pirates and he is on somewhat of an opposite trajectory of Kelly. He has had a decent May after a tough April. He also has been better at home. I think that with these pitchers on the mound, and these two offenses, the under 8 is the play here at -120. I’d love to play the under 4.5 through five, but I’m not paying -150 juice.

Nationals at Reds

You might be surprised about this, but the Reds have turned their season around lately. They were absolutely terrible for the first month of the season, but now they are, well, still terrible, but better. They are 15-10 over their last 25 games. Josiah Gray is going for the Nationals, and I have very little faith in his performance. The Nationals are 6-4 as a team in his starts so far. In the four losses, he’s allowed 21 earned runs. In his wins, he has allowed 8 earned runs. So he’s either good, or really bad. I think today he is good as he’s never faced the Reds, so should have the edge, and he has a road ERA of just 2.42. I’ll play Nationals at +114 through the 1st Half.

Padres at Brewers

This is something I’m playing at a lower value than the other two games. Corbin Burnes and Joe Musgrove have been two of the best pitchers in baseball to start the season. This game has a low 6.5 total and it is for good reason. Both pitchers have a sub-2 ERA. I think both are capable of holding their opponent at bay, but one bad inning can ruin this one. I’ll take the 1st five innings under 3.5 at -128.

Written by David Troy

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