MLB Best Bets for Friday, July 8, 2022

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A somewhat frustrating 1-1-1 day. Did we lose, yes, just a little bit. But, it was the way we lost that really frustrated me. The Rockies and D’backs had six runs through five innings and scored just one more run the rest of the way. A meaningless run in the ninth made the Cubs play a push instead of a win. Oh well.

Rays vs. Reds

Shane McClanahan has been kicking ass all season and his Cy Young campaign heads through Cincinnati today. We know Cincy really struggles to score runs, and we know that the Rays should win this game. Playing the run line is a clear option, and probably something I will throw a bet on, but my favorite in this one is the Reds team total under 3. Frankly, when the Reds face elite pitching, they don’t hit. McClanahan has gone at least six innings in hits last 10 starts. In those 10 starts, opponents have scored two or fewer runs in seven of those games. The Yankees have scored 4 runs twice, and the other game the White Sox scored three runs. Play Reds under 3.

Twins vs. Rangers

We have 50 Shades of Gray in this one. Well, just two, and neither are really dominators. Did I choose this game just so I could make some lame joke about Sonny Gray facing Jon Gray in the game? Yes, yes I did. Sonny Gray has actually been really good this year despite some injury issues. In his last two road starts, he has allowed a total of six hits, and no earned runs in 12 innings. Rangers hitters are batting just .247 against Sonny. Now for the other Gray. Jon Gray is better at home and had a really nice June before struggling in his first July start. He has been very good against the bottom three teams in the AL Central, but against the Guardians, he struggled. I think the Twins are the correct side in this one. Twins -120.

Tigers vs. White Sox

I had high hopes for both of these teams and both have let me down. The Tigers ended last season as one of the better teams, so maybe they will turn it around in the second half. Tarik Skubal started the season as one of the better first five-inning bets to make. Lately, he’s allowed at least three earned runs in his last six starts, with only one of them completing the fifth inning. Lucas Giolito has been terrible as well, but pitched great on the west coast road trip. I still think he may allow some runs in this one. That should be enough to push this over 4.5 runs through 5 innings.

Written by David Troy

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