MLB Best Bets for Friday, July 30, 2021

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After a few rough days, we’ve rebounded nicely and are 6-0 the last two days (and there was even a bonus +138 win yesterday). Let’s keep it rolling.

Indians vs. White Sox

I’ve talked about this enough. I’ve even given out Lance Lynn to win the Cy Young at +1700. He is now the current favorite. The White Sox are an amazing team at home and Lance Lynn is their ace, especially at home. Lynn has a 1.50 ERA at home this year, which is not quite DeGrom like but damn close. The Sox take on the Indians who are stuck throwing JC Mejia. Mejia has never faced the White Sox, but he has an 8.34 earned run average in away starts. This burned me once before because you never know how a pitcher will do against a team that has never faced him before (the White Sox lost to the Orioles last time I loved a matchup like this). But, I’m playing the White Sox run line tonight at -111. I also like the White Sox through three innings as Mejia has been losing after three in his last three starts, but at -105, there really isn’t much value there so play if you’d like.

Astros vs. Giants

Kevin Gausman is one of the most profitable pitchers in baseball through the first five innings. He faces a daunting Astros lineup tonight that will make it hard for him to cash for us. That, coupled with the fact that the Giants are a favorite today, makes me stay away. But, I do have a different angle on this game that I like. After some decent starts, Framber Valdez threw six no-hit innings last game against the Rangers before being pulled for pitch count. Gausman on the other hand just gave up six earned to the Pirates in 4.1 innings. After a stretch of one or no run starts, he is crashing back down to earth a bit. I like the Astros to get to Gausman today and them to lead after 5 innings. I’m playing the money line at +110 in case the draw happens.

Orioles vs. Tigers

Matt Harvey used to be a top of the rotation pitcher. Now he is more famous to bettors as being someone to fade and play totals over on him. But he may have turned a slight corner as he has now posted consecutive scoreless outings. Even if it just for a little bit, it is an improvement. More importantly, he gets to face the Tigers tonight who don’t strike much fear into anyone. Tarik Skubal goes for the Tigers and after a strong June, July has been a bit rocky for him. The Orioles are hitting .268 against lefties, and Skubal happens to be just that. My guess is this game ends something like 4-3 Orioles. I’m officially playing the under 9.5 at -118, but I may drop a sprinkle on the double result of Baltimore and under 10.5 runs for +270.

Written by David Troy

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