We ended up splitting the plays yesterday as the Marlins and Phillies game was postponed. Not to worry, we return again today with three fresh plays for our MLB Best Bets.
Dodgers vs. Nationals
I’ll be the first to tell you… I don’t know why money is moving the line towards the Dodgers. The Nationals have Max Scherzer pitching, who has held Dodgers hitters to just a .132 average, and has a 1.96 ERA at home this season. On the other side is Julio Urias who carries a 3.62 ERA on the road and Nationals hitters are batting .311 against him. Right there, I see advantage Nationals. On top of that, Nationals are hitting .267 against lefties this year. Maybe there is something I’m missing, but I’ll take the Nationals at +106 or better if the line keeps moving.
Brewers vs. Pirates
This pick will not come often for me, even though I like taking dogs in baseball games. I’m taking the Pirates. The Brewers have won nine games in a row and 11 of their last 12, meaning they are coming in hot. The Pirates, on the other hand, have lost four in a row, and five of their last six. Meaning they are not hot. The reason I like them tonight, though, is JT Brubaker has a cool name… well, that isn’t the real reason. He carries a 2.67 ERA at home and gave up only four hits and one run to the Brewers in his only start against them this season. The Brewers starters have been unbelievable this year, but Adrian Houser hasn’t been as strong as others. He is pitching to the tune of 4.38 on the road and he’s given up five earned runs in 10 innings against the Pirates so far this season. I’m going to take the Pirates first five innings as I have no faith in the Pirates bullpen and if the Brewers do have a lead, I don’t think the Pirates come back against the Brewers pen. Pirates, first five innings at -102.
White Sox vs. Tigers
Lance Lynn continues to be an anchor for the White Sox this year. Although I’d rather play him at home than on the road, he is still pitching very well. The Tigers are hitting .226 against him and he held them to just four hits and one earned run the last time he started against them. Casey Mize pitches for Detroit today, and the White Sox haven’t had too much success against him – they are getting a hit one out of every five at-bats. He’s pitched against them twice this season and both games ended in a Tigers loss with Mize giving up three earned in both games. Play the White Sox run line or -1.5 at +108 as I think their offense will do more than the Tigers in this game.